2027, Tinubu & Others: Lessons From History

This piece was inspired by a political story in The New York Times edition of May 2, 1982. It was filed by its then Foreign Correspondent, Alan Cowell, and entitled "In Nigerian Vote, Old Leaders Come Out Fighting."

And reading it today, coincidentally, on May 2, 2026 i.e. exactly 44 years later, makes it somewhat surreal.

If one replaces the names of the political gladiators of that year with the names of current principal political actors, it would seem as if the years have stood still on a frozen calendar. Or it could also be that time hasn't really frozen, but the dramatis personnel have simply reincarnated under new names and new political platforms.

What makes the scenario less surreal is the fact that history is, indeed, repeating itself.

Let me share with us a few quotes from Cowell's: "It (1982) is a time of ferment, with the fractured opposition parties seeking new alliances."

Comment: Read this quote again, and let it sink!

"The ruling National Party (of Nigeria), the richest and best organized in the country, is entrenched in seven of the 19 states, stretching from the heartland of its support among the Islamic Hausa-Fulani peoples of the north to the Christian southeast."

Comment: If Cowell wrote his piece today, his "seven of the 19 states" would be "31 of the 36 states," and it would be needless mentioning "Hausa-Fulani peoples of the north" or "the Christian Southeast." The APC, under Tinubu, has dismantled all geographical barriers, shattered all geopolitical myths, dumbfounded religious calculations and broken the cultural taboos that pigeonholed or sectionalised previous Nigerian leaders. He is truly the first Pan-Nigerian President. That is the Tinubu phenomenon. If you miss it, you live in denial!

Observing that the opposition's obsession was merely a desperate capture of Ribadu Road (the then seat of presidential power), Alan Cowell wrote: "Earlier this year, Chief (Obafemi) Awolowo and Dr. (Nnamdi) Azikiwe joined with factions of the two divided northern parties to set up a group called the Progressive People's Alliance (PPA). But its leadership is uncertain, with Dr. Azikiwe and Chief Awolowo circling each other in the manner of wary political infighters despite protestations of allegiance."

Comment: The present usually echoes the past, but can we say here that the past echoed the present? Or was the Briton's analysis an adumbration of the present?

And Cowell added:
"Hardly had the Progressive People's Alliance been formed than a faction broke away to form the Progressive People's Party (PPP), which has yet to win recognition by the federal election commission. No one seems to know, just yet, which way Dr. Azikiwe will go."

Comment: Do the PPA and the PPP have parallels in the ADC and the NDC?

But Cowell wasn't done: "A concensus (sic) among Western diplomats and some Nigerians is that, on present evidence, President (Shehu) Shagari stands a good chance of being returned to office."

Comment: The journalist is not a prophet, but Cowell was prophetic here: Shagari won his re-election bid. Relating it, we can say: A weak, fractured and disorganised opposition makes a Tinubu return a fait accompli. Like Shagari like Tinubu.

But Cowell wasn't alone in this assessment. Shagari, generally, had the reputation of a pious and reserved leader. In fact, a former US Ambassador to Nigeria, John Campbell, once described him as

"honest and mild, a gentleman of the old school."

And yet, the whole Zik of Africa, the sagacious Awolowo, and the fiery Aminu Kano had to gang-up against this "mild" man, now of blessed memory.

It shows the awesome power, aura and mystique of the presidency that these titans, "Nigeria's grand old men of politics," had to consider a coalition- vehicle to terminate Shagari's incumbency.

And yet, this was a President Cowell described as "a low-key figure" who had "created an image of aloofness from brutal politicking."

It is an observable reality that the political factionalisations of 2026 make the factions of 1982 kindergarten stuff. The Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) was still largely a monolith. The Chief Akin Michael Omoboriowo-Gov. Michael Adekunle Ahasin saga had not yet come to dramatic light, and the party still held unto its five states of Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ondo and Bendel states.

It was the same thing in the Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP). The party, under Chief Adeniran Ogunsanya, was still united behind its leader, the Owelle of Onitsha. And the party still maintained its grip on its three states i.e. Anambra, Imo and Plateau.

It was the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) that had fractured almost irredeemably, with its founder and presidential candidate in the 1979 General Elections, Mallam Aminu Kano, expelled. He would, ironically, later find accommodation in the National Party of Nigeria (NPN).

The Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP) was not faring any better, but its leader, Alh. Waziri Ibrahim, had managed to maintain his hold on the party.

Overall, nothing on the political scene in mid-1982 compared to the chaos, the anarchy, the confusion, the panic, the defections, the somersaults and the rudderlessness that now rules in the Opposition ranks. The evidence of that is seen in the number of rootless presidential candidates and the volume of political refugees looking for anchor.

Plus, none of the Second Republic Opposition-parties, despite their state of disarray, had the judicial Sword of Damocles hanging over it. The PDP, the ADC and the NDC in focus.

But more significantly, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not your "mild" or "gentle" president.

The truth is that Tinubu is as rambunctious as they come. A product of the Lagos social background, it would be difficult to stamp the "low-key" badge on him. He is confident, strategic, visible and political, with some possible jaggy vibes.

As a Lagos-Boy who grew up on the rough streets of Lagos Island and mastered its rugged culture in his quest for the Nigerian Dream, Tinubu's steely side can be excused, and even explained.

And as a king-maker who, in a dog-eat-dog arena, made governors, enthroned presidents and floored eternal presidential questers to become the president himself, he can be excused if he is not exactly "gentle" or "mild!"

The truth is that President Tinubu is a confident and ambidextrous power-player who dominates his environment, and who watches the unfolding 2027 permutations with the eyes of a maestro.

And if Shagari, a "gentleman," terrified the "Nigerian grand old men of politics" to the point of seeking Alliances, one can understand the panic that grips today's presidential challengers, and forces them into endless alliance-talks, innumerable merger-summits and perpetual platform-shopping!

The big lesson from history here is this: Alliances against incumbents don't work. They didn't work against President Shagari in 1983 or President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2003, and won't work against Tinubu, Come 2027.

What has worked in our chequered political history is political mergers, and the APC achieved it in 2012/2013. The Opposition-parties could have done it too in the preceding years, but bungled the opportunity wholesale. And its alliances now frail and fail.

Everywhere in Africa that the One-Party State came about (Togo, Benin, Zaire, Zambia, Cameroon, Tanzania etc - it was a deliberate policy engineered and executed by the incumbent president with legislative signatures. We are seeing the reverse in Nigeria where the Opposition-parties are working towards making Nigeria a One-Party State via self-sabotage as well as self-hemorrhaging, and the consequential evacuation into the ruling APC.

The months ahead promise to be interesting as we watch history unfold, act by act and scene by scene.

Imobo-Tswam, erstwhile Media Adviser to two former PDP chairmen, writes from Abuja.

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