The Final Exam: What Ghana’s Last IMF Review Means for Your Pocket and the Cedi

Let me tell you something that does not make big headlines but affects everything from the price of a loaf of bread to whether your nephew gets a job. The International Monetary Fund, that big global lender we all love to blame when things get hard, has sent its team to Accra for the final review of our three-year bailout program. Think of it like your final university exam after three long years of attending lectures, doing assignments, and losing sleep. If you pass, you graduate. If you fail, you repeat. And right now, the government is smiling and saying, “We have done our homework.”

What does this actually mean in simple language? Three years ago, Ghana was in trouble. Deep trouble. Our debts were choking us. The cedi was falling like a wounded bird. We could not borrow money from anyone because nobody trusted us. So we went to the IMF with our hands open and said, “Help us, but we will follow your rules.” The rules were painful. Cut spending. Increase taxes. Tighten the belt. And for three years, Ghanaians felt that pain. Higher utility tariffs. More levies on fuel. Less money for roads and schools. It was not fun. But here we are now, at the final review. And the news is surprisingly good.

The IMF team is in Accra to check if we have kept our promises. And what do they see? They see that our GDP growth, which is just a fancy way of saying the total value of all the goods and services we produce as a country, hit 6.9 percent in the last quarter. That is the fastest our economy has grown in five years. Five years. Let that sink in. When an economy grows, it means businesses are producing more, people are spending more, and jobs are being created. It does not mean every single person feels rich, but it means the overall direction is upward instead of downward. That is important.

Now, why should you, the ordinary Ghanaian who is just trying to get through the week, care about this final review? Let me give you three simple reasons. First, if the IMF gives us a passing grade, they will unlock the final tranche of funding. That is the last chunk of money from the bailout. That money will go into our national reserves, which is like a savings account for the country. When reserves are healthy, the Bank of Ghana can defend the cedi better. That means your money does not lose value overnight. Second, a successful review sends a signal to the whole world that Ghana is trustworthy again. When we are trustworthy, foreign investors and lenders are willing to give us loans at cheaper interest rates. Cheaper loans for the government can mean less pressure to tax you more. And third, it opens the door for Ghana to return to the international capital markets. That is just a big phrase for saying we can borrow money from private investors around the world instead of only depending on the IMF. More options usually mean better deals.

But let me be real with you. Passing this final review is not guaranteed. The IMF team will look at everything. They will check our debt levels, our revenue collection, our spending discipline, and whether we have protected the poor during the adjustment period. They will ask hard questions. And there are always risks. The recent fuel price spikes from the Middle East war could have messed up our inflation numbers. The power substation fire at Akosombo could have disrupted economic activity. But so far, the numbers look better than anyone expected three years ago.

What does 6.9 percent GDP growth feel like on the ground? Let me explain. When the economy grows, a hairdresser in Ashaiman might see more customers because people have a little more money to spend. A spare parts dealer at Abossey Okai might sell more because construction is picking up. A farmer might get a better price for his maize because food processing companies are buying more. But growth is not felt equally. It starts in some sectors and slowly spreads. So if you are still struggling, do not think you are alone. The truth is that even when the national numbers look good, the person selling charcoal by the roadside might not feel it yet. That is why the government must make sure the growth reaches everyone, not just the people in suits.

Let me also connect this to the technology story I have been writing about. The AI strategy, the one million coders program, the 5G rollout, the MTN investment, the UAE partnership—all of this is possible because the economy has stabilised. You cannot build a 250 million dollar computing centre when the cedi is crashing every week. You cannot attract a 1 billion dollar technology partnership when investors think the government will default on its debts. So the IMF program and the technology push are not separate stories. They are the same story. First, fix the foundation. Then, build the house. That is what Ghana is trying to do.

But here is my cautious warning. Exiting the IMF program does not mean we are free to go back to our old bad habits. Remember why we went to the IMF in the first place. We borrowed recklessly. We spent beyond our means. We did not save for the rainy days. If we finish this final review, get the passing grade, and then immediately start behaving like the rules do not matter, we will be back at the IMF’s doorstep within a few years. And next time, it will be even more painful. So the real test is not passing the IMF review. The real test is what we do after we pass. Will we continue to be disciplined? Will we grow our own revenue so we do not depend on lenders? Will we invest the money we save from debt payments into things that create jobs, like the AI computing centre and the 5G network? That is the question.

For you, sitting at home or at work, what should you watch? Watch the cedi. If after this review the cedi holds steady or even strengthens a little, that is a good sign. Watch fuel prices. If the government continues to adjust taxes to protect you from global shocks, that means they have learned something. And watch interest rates on loans. If the banks start lowering their rates because confidence has returned, that is your moment to borrow for that small business idea or to pay off more expensive debt.

I am not going to stand here and tell you that everything is perfect. Far from it. The cost of living is still high for many families as reported by Accra Street Journal. Good jobs are still hard to find. The power situation still makes us nervous. But I will say this: the fact that we have reached the final IMF review with a 6.9 percent growth rate according to The High Street Business, is something we should acknowledge. It means the difficult decisions of the past three years were not for nothing. It means the belt-tightening had a purpose. And it means that if we stay the course, the next three years could be much better than the last three.

So when you hear that the IMF team is in Accra, do not panic. Do not assume it is bad news. This is the final exam. And from where I am sitting, it looks like Ghana has studied hard. Now we wait for the results. But whether we pass or fail, the real work continues. Because a good grade on paper does not put food on your table. Only a strong, honest, and smart Ghana can do that. And that is the Ghana we must keep building, with or without the IMF watching.

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Source Used: Accra Street Journal

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