NPP Flagbearer Race: What the Polling Trend Really Shows

The contest for the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential flagbearer has moved beyond speculation into a contest shaped by measurable momentum. An analysis of major opinion polls conducted between April 2025 and January 2026, as illustrated in the chart below, reveals a clear pattern: Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia led early, but Hon. Kennedy Ohene Agyapong leads late—particularly in polls that focus on actual voting delegates.

Throughout much of 2025, Dr. Bawumia dominated the race in surveys conducted among broad NPP supporters and early delegate samples. Polls by Global Info Analytics and similar firms consistently placed him in the high 40s to low 50s. His strongest showing came in December 2025, when a Konrad Adenauer Stiftung–linked poll projected his support at nearly 68 percent. At that point, many analysts concluded that the race was effectively settled.

However, The Dr. Evans Duah multi-wave delegate-only survey, reported in January 2026, placed Kennedy Agyapong clearly ahead with approximately 52.6 percent support, while Dr. Bawumia declined to about 36.2 percent under best-case delegate scenarios. This result was corroborated by the Sanity Africa Phase Three poll, which also sampled only delegates and showed Agyapong leading with about 52 percent, compared to Bawumia’s near 40 percent.

The contrast between early and late polling explains much of the current debate. Early surveys that favored Bawumia were conducted well before the primaries and relied on broader samples that included party sympathizers and non-voting influencers. In contrast, the Duah and Sanity Africa polls focused squarely on voting delegates—the individuals who will decide the outcome on primary day.

Agyapong’s late surge appears to reflect sustained grassroots engagement, direct communication with delegates, and increasing resonance around his message on job creation, anti-corruption, and grassroots party empowerment. Delegates who were undecided earlier seem to have consolidated their preferences late in the race.

In summary, the chart contextualizes Bawumia’s early strength while highlighting a decisive late momentum shift. The most recent, delegate-focused polls suggest that the race has moved in Kennedy Agyapong’s favor. In internal party primaries, momentum—not memory—often proves decisive, and the current data indicates that momentum is now with Hon. Ken.

By Dr. Daniel Quacoe (Senior lecturer, Ghana Christian University College)

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