Jordan’s Economic Crisis as a Regional Challenge: A Warning Call and a Strategic Opportunity

The economic data recently published regarding Jordan’s condition is no longer a theoretical warning. It reflects a deep, unfolding, and dangerous crisis that threatens not only the Jordanian economy but the stability of the Hashemite Kingdom itself. A swelling public debt, high unemployment, the ongoing erosion of the middle class, and growing dependence on external aid together create a reality that, in an extreme scenario, could lead to political shock and regime change. A recent article published in Israel exposed the hard numbers. The real question is their regional meaning and what can be done now.

In conversations with Samuel Shay, one of the most prominent voices today in regional economic thinking around the Abraham Accords, a sharp and clear picture emerges: Jordan is a critical link in the stability chain of the Middle East. An economic collapse in Amman would not remain an internal matter. It would directly affect Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the entire space between the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea.

Debt, Frustration, and Political Risk
According to Shay, Jordan’s core problem is not only the level of debt, but the absence of real growth engines behind it. For years, the Jordanian economy has relied on services, foreign aid, and transfer payments, with a weak production base and agriculture that has never been implemented at a national scale. When debt reaches levels that restrict public investment, undermine the state’s ability to generate employment, and erode public trust, the risk becomes political and not merely economic.

In a volatile regional environment, where ideological, religious, and social pressures are waiting for any sign of governmental weakness, Jordan cannot afford another decade of stagnation.

The Abraham Accords as an Economic Anchor, Not Only a Diplomatic One

This is where a concept consistently advanced by Shay comes into focus: Jordan must be treated as a top priority within the economic expansion of the Abraham Accords. Not as a state receiving limited assistance, but as a partner in large scale strategic projects.

The logic is straightforward. Jordanian stability serves Israeli, Saudi, and international interests alike. Therefore, a proactive, coordinated, and properly funded initiative is required, one that connects Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and eventually Syria, around tangible growth engines.

The Agricultural Corridor from the Syrian Border to the Red Sea

One of the central ideas presented by Shay is the development of a continuous national agricultural corridor along the entire length of Jordan, from the Syrian border in the north to the Gulf of Aqaba in the south. This is not a collection of small projects, but a comprehensive national program that integrates water, land, technology, and markets.

Despite its desert image, Jordan can become a regional agricultural power if the right infrastructure is put in place. Investment in water, including desalination, conveyance, storage, and agricultural reuse, is a foundational requirement. Alongside this, the development of high value crops such as coffee, cocoa, and oil palm, combined with precision agriculture and Israeli and Saudi technologies, can generate export revenues, broad employment, and a local industrial value chain.

Five Billion Dollars Instead of Twenty Years of Stagnation

The estimated cost presented by Shay for an initial phase stands at approximately five billion dollars. This is not a trivial sum, but it is far lower than the economic and security damage that could result from a Jordanian collapse. It is an investment capable of providing a horizon of stability for the next twenty years.

The funding is intended not only for fields and water, but also for processing industries, logistics systems, employment zones, agricultural research centers, and integration with an advanced education and vocational training system. This is how an economy is built, not merely supported through aid.

The Broader Regional Impact
According to Shay, the success of such a program in Jordan would transform it from a weak, externally supported actor into a productive player at the heart of the region. It would strengthen Israel’s eastern border, deepen cooperation with Saudi Arabia, and eventually allow for cautious Syrian participation in civilian projects, provided political conditions mature.

Beyond that, it would send a clear message: the Abraham Accords are not only a diplomatic framework, but a platform for building stability through economy, employment, and a civilian future.

A Narrowing Window of Opportunity
The central message emerging from the discussions with Shay is urgency. Time is not working in Jordan’s favor. Each additional year of debt, unemployment, and frustration brings the kingdom closer to a boiling point. Precisely now, against the backdrop of regional turbulence, there is a window of opportunity to initiate a bold, coordinated, and visionary economic move.

Jordan is not a problem. It is a key. The question is whether the regional and international system will recognize this in time.

Original article by Samuel Shay, developer and economic advisor for the Abraham Accord treaty.

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