The future is our coffee

Coffee means Ethiopia. Ethiopia means coffee. Among the precious gifts Ethiopia has given to the world, coffee is the primary and most important. Today, over billion cups of coffee are consumed daily worldwide. It is considered a symbol of civilization and is produced in over 70 countries. The livelihoods of over 120 million people worldwide depend on coffee. Billions of dollars are traded annually. Coffee is a social capital that tightly binds the communities of Ethiopia.

Beyond its economic and social benefits, coffee has also been a benefactor to the world. Its contribution to the flourishing of democracy worldwide must be highlighted. Jürgen Habermas, the German sociologist and scholar, states that the 18th century was the golden age of democracy. For this, in his concept of the Public Sphere, people at the time gathered in coffee houses to discuss their lives, their common concerns, and various ideas without any restrictions. They debated with reason. They put into practice ideas on which consensus was reached. Habermas says that when people gathered in coffee houses to discuss, differences such as money, education, and class were not considered. According to him, governments, to gain acceptance, would adopt and implement the ideas discussed and agreed upon by citizens in coffee houses. In time, however, media and public relations professionals and institutions replaced the Public Sphere with the private sphere. According to Habermas, coffee and coffee houses contributed significantly during the era when public decisiveness reigned supreme.

Having said this by way of introduction, let me move on to the main point. In the 2017 fiscal year, Ethiopia went through many successes and challenges. The past fiscal year can be described as primarily the year of coffee. In Ethiopia's history, a record export in both volume and revenue was registered. By exporting 468,967 tons of coffee, over 2.653 billion US dollars in revenue was generated. In terms of performance, this was 144% in volume and 147% in revenue compared to the plan. Among the contributors to this achievement, Ethiopia's reform and transformation efforts in the coffee sector are the main ones.

The government believes that operating within globalization is a matter of survival. It believes that globalization is not an option but a system. Believing that there is no alternative but to compete, and that competing and winning in the global market is essential for the country's survival, Ethiopia has been striving to be an active participant and beneficiary in the market. The macroeconomic reform is one of these efforts. Coffee has been among the export products that have received focus in the past few years.

– In various regional cities, by involving stakeholders, bottlenecks have been identified, and solutions have been jointly put forward. By involving stakeholders and fostering a sense of ownership, they have started contributing to the control of illegal coffee trade.

– A coffee productivity and quality improvement package has been prepared and published. Training has been provided down to district levels and to farmers in past years. Among the issues given attention in the past years to improve coffee productivity and quality is the expansion of research institutions focused on coffee. Another reason for the record coffee export is the promotional work done for our coffee, which has played its part. By participating in exhibitions, bazaars, and expos in China and Dubai, efforts have been made to promote coffee, attract new buyers, and secure contracts. Over 20 new coffee destination countries have been created. Above all, this year can be remembered as the year of coffee among all export products due to direct links allowing farmers to export directly.

The coming years could also be Ethiopia's coffee eras. The land covered by coffee is increasing, and productivity is improving. New climate-resilient varieties are being released. Our market destinations are also growing.

On the other hand, most other coffee-producing countries are severely affected by climate change, impacting their coffee production and productivity in a devastating way. Experts estimate that by 2050, 50% of the land currently producing coffee will no longer be suitable for coffee production. According to an analysis by World Coffee Portal, due to global warming, by 2050, 76% of Brazil's currently highly suitable land for coffee will become unsuitable for production. Additionally, 28% of its moderately suitable land will become unproductive. Brazil supplies one-third of the world's coffee to the global market.

The Australian Climate Institute, for its part, estimates that Vietnam, the world's second-largest coffee producer, will lose 75% of its highly suitable land and 25% of its moderately suitable land for coffee production by 2050.

According to the International Coffee Organization, an imbalance between global coffee production and consumption is already occurring. According to the organization, in 2022, there was a supply gap of 6 million 60kg bags of coffee, with consumption exceeding supply. The United Nations estimates that the world's population will increase from 7.6 billion currently to 9.7 billion by 2050. The UN also predicts that coffee demand in Africa and Asia will double by 2050. A report issued by Conservation International Forecast (2016) warns that to meet the coffee demand in 2050, current coffee production needs to triple. Population growth will lead to an imbalance between coffee demand and supply. Above all, the suitability of most lands where coffee is produced will significantly decrease. For this reason, it is estimated that by 2050, coffee will become a luxury drink consumed by a few wealthy individuals. Is this why Thomas Jefferson, a founding father and former President of the United States, called coffee "the drink of the civilized world"? While you are currently drinking a cup of coffee for 30 birr, in most US states, it costs over 2 dollars. In any case, if Ethiopia wants to benefit from this, it must strategically plan and begin implementing coffee cultivation in highland areas from now on. If the current growth continues, it would be beneficial to invest now to enhance the use of technology, especially artificial intelligence, from production to marketing. It is recommended to brand Ethiopian coffee by focusing on encouraging coffee consumption among young people, especially in rapidly developing countries and Africa, promoting it as healthy. In conclusion, the future is for Ethiopian coffee.

By Sintayehu Girma Aytaged
Sintayehugirma57@gmail.com

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