Opare Writes: Election 2020 Dynamics – A Serious Threat To Ghana’s Security

For almost thirty years, Ghanaians have had cause to praise their country for being the most peaceful country in Africa, one of the indexes we have used to assess ourselves and for that matter ranked our country as the most peaceful country in the sub-region is holding peaceful elections. This is because we have always come out successfully and peacefully from all the elections we have held since 1992. We conversely, judging from the fact that most countries in the sub-region are plunge into violence and insecurity after elections, it makes the use of this index by Ghanaians sensible.

Since 1992 all the general elections held successfully in the country have had its security challenges which we overcame as a country through the collective roles we all played as citizens. Thus, irrespective of the irregularities and competitiveness nature of the election, politicians and political parties who are the main actors have always done well to play by the rules of the game, the Electoral Commission has also conducted all the elections held since 1992 in a relatively acceptable manner, the security agencies regardless of the minor security hitches that occurs in most of our elections have also been on top of their game, other stakeholders have also done well by playing supporting roles to contribute to our enviable post, during and pre elections laurels since the beginning of the fourth republic.

Assessing the security threat of all the elections held since 1992 to the last one in 2016, the 2000 and 2008 elections can be deemed as the elections that have had the tendency to jeopardized the country’s security efforts, but the deep-seated patriotism, maturity and tolerance demonstrated by Ghanaians towards those elections helped us to jump over the 2000 and 2008 hurdles.

The dynamics, expectations and stakes of every election determines it security threats and challenges.

In year 2000, the dynamics of the election was that –; the demand for political change was so high with a one-time defeated opposition leader battling it out with a vice president who was then a favorite ‘boy’ to an incumbent president who had rule under military regime for 10 years and also ruled as a democratically elected president for 8years. One of the fear of Ghanaians preceding that election was that, we were scared as to whether the incumbent party would justly cede power to the opposition should they lose the general elections since they had controlled of the security apparatus of the country for almost 20 years prior to that election.

Though the demand for political change in 2000 was higher than it supplies, the highly tipped opposition leader and party (Kuffour -NPP) failed to make it one touch, it has to take a round off and also coalition with other opposition parties to earned that victory. The reason for this was that; Rawlings had led Ghana through its NDC party for 20 years and had gained grounds in the country’s social architecture and for that matter making the reversal of that status quo a difficult mission.

The overwhelming vote in support for change by Ghanaians in the second round for (President Kuffour – NPP) settled all the security threat and challenge that were looming in that election in the sense that, the gap in the results was very wild and clear for anyone to dispute it.

In year 2008, the dynamics about that election was that; the main showdown was between a former vice president (Atta Mills- NDC) a candidate who was contesting the third time after having lost twice in a row in the general election against the largest opposition candidate (President Akuffo Addo – NPP) a candidate who had harbored a lifetime aspiration of becoming the president of Ghana that was a common knowledge and was contesting for the first time.

Though the stakes were high for both parties, President Atta Mills of the NDC had an unmatchable interest in that election as compared to the then candidate Akuffo Addo since it became obvious that, that election was the late President Atta -Mill’s last bet, hence throwing in all exertions to win.

The outcome of that particular election has to be decided by a round off and even perhaps a third round at the Tain constituency. The close call of the results of that general elections for President Atta Mills – NDC against President Akuffo Addo – NPP showed that the country was highly divided, a phenomenon that spearheaded or gave birth to the political polarization we have in the country today.

Ghanaians again overcame the imminent security threat in that general election through our collective’s patriotism efforts for peace and also the gross political maturity demonstrated by the two top contenders (late presidents Atta Mills and the then candidate Akuffo Addo).

Election 2020:

I see the upcoming 2020 general election as the mother of all the elections we have had in Ghana and possibly would have for a very long time to come.

The upcoming general election in my view is about the following;

First time two presidents are contesting - a sitting president and an immediate past president; Power is said to be “sweet”, by virtue of the fact that both of these two presidents have tasted power before and knows how it feels like to govern and plainly knows the opportunities in it outweighs the challenges that come with the presidency, It is therefore not surprising that the two main contenders in this general election are eager to do everything humanly possible to retain power or to recapture power, and in quest of winning the election the ways and means, the efforts , commitment and sacrifices that are going on goes beyond what we see, know ,hear and think.

A battle between Two Commanders in Chief of the Armed Forces (the current Commander in Chief against the immediate past Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces). The upcoming general election is between two political rivals that have all superintended over the Ghana Armed Forces and also headed the national security apparatus. And so, by virtue of these positions whether as present or past commander in Chief of the Army or head of the national security setup they have been able to create some constituents in the security apparatus of the country, it is not wrong or out of place to say each candidate have a half share of the security setup in the country and this has the propensity to compromise the loyalty of officers in our security institutions.

The sitting president will be appearing 4^th time on the ballot paper; the upcoming context will be the 4^th consecutive time the current president name and image will be appearing on the ballot paper which is unprecedented in the history of his party (NPP) and perhaps the country politics. After loosing his first two context and winning his third, the president will not take chances at all since he will wish to do his best to win his fourth context, an outcome that will neutralize his presidential context mark sheet as 50/50 thus 2 loss 2 wins in 4 context a record that will be better than 3 loss 1 win in 4 context. A defeat for the sitting president will give his political opponent the chance to update a moniker they coined for Akuffo Addo after his 2012 defeat ‘twice defeated presidential candidate of the NPP” which will be updated to become “thrice defeated presidential candidate of the NPP “, in order to avert this political label from happening a victory for the sitting president is needed. On the other hand, ex-president John Mahama will be appearing for the 3^rd time on the ballot paper, it will be the third consecutive context for the ex-president against the same opponent, a defeat for the ex-president will qualify him to also be called twice defeated presidential candidate a political label the ex-president will also seek to avert. A victory for the ex-president will write and re-write a lot of political history that will go beyond the boarders of the country – something that he will fight to achieve.

First time two ECOWAS chairmen are contesting against each other (current ECOWAS chairman and a former ECOWAS chairman): The ECOWAS chairmanship role tasted or handled by these two candidates have given them a lot of connections, networks and links in the sub-region and beyond. By virtue of this chairmanship role both have been able to establish some strong diplomatic and international relationships which gives them some foreign assistance in support of their bids.

Both candidates have defeated each other before in previous elections: Both candidates have lost and won to each other in an election before, they all know how painful it is to be defeated, and also know how exasperating it is to be in opposition. This makes the upcoming election to be the grand finale of their political bout for which a victory will be an immortal contentment that will be engraved in our political for the winner and a loss will also be an eternal agony that will become perpetual in our political history for the loser. It is for some of these reasons that makes these two strong contenders see the election more than life.

Both candidate I must say is approaching or perhaps are in the evening of their political life cycle in Ghana. The fact that the issues with age factor and especially party selection or nomination as flagbearer procedures does not favor each candidate in their future political prospect, a defeat in this general election means there might not be a possible rebound, hence the need to avert defeat at all cost.

In analyzing the above enumerations, the 2020 presidential election is not an ordinary election, it has no similarities with any general election held in this country and even in the sub region. The delicate nature of some of the information and intelligence about the election impels me to extremely control what I have and intend to give in this article.

The outcome in the general election goes beyond what we think and see, we have as a country gone into and come out peacefully from various elections before – but the security challenges in this particular election is so terminating and startling that a non-landslide victory by the eventual winner might render the country into chaos. It is not for nothing that President Akuffo Addo always entreats his supporters to vote for him “boom boom boom “on his various campaign trail – because he is certainly aware that a slim margin victory might cause myriad challenges for the country’s security.

In nixing the imminent security threat of this election – the peace council must up it game , traditional rulers must refrain from the unwarranted endorsing of candidates , political actors ( political parties, flagbearers, members, leaders ,parliamentary candidates ) must commit to peace and refrain from the sporadic loose talks on political platforms, the security institutions have to commit to the constitution , the citizenry have to rebuke politicians who go politically wayward and above all the referee of the game Electoral Commission should know what is at stake and weigh the implications , repercussions and ramifications of whatever they have done and intend to do!

Peace is Priceless!

Ernest D. Opare

Security & Intelligence Wit.

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