Lebanon 'waiting for another spark' as US-Iran talks progress, analyst says

After a marathon 12-hour meeting, US and Iranian officials have concluded the first round of high-level talks in Switzerland, agreeing to continue a 60-day diplomatic process aimed at narrowing differences toward a broader agreement. Mediators say both sides made what they described as “encouraging progress” and discussed mechanisms to reduce the risk of escalation, including proposals for deconfliction arrangements linked to Lebanon. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director of research at the Beirut Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, said the conflict in Lebanon is “waiting for another spark” and has effectively become a “buffer zone” and “boxing bag” used by different actors to influence US-Iran negotiations. He said Israeli concerns over the talks, as well as divisions within Iran-linked factions, could both trigger escalation through Lebanon. Hage Ali said emerging deconfliction mechanisms remain fragile and closely tied to the wider negotiating process, making it difficult to describe the situation as a stable ceasefire. He argued that Israel's strategy involves establishing a security buffer zone in southern Lebanon, restricting population return, and using territorial leverage in future negotiations with the Lebanese state over Hezbollah's disarmament. He added that the Lebanese government has been largely sidelined in current diplomatic tracks. He also said destruction in southern Lebanon reflects what he described as a policy aimed at preventing civilian return, a claim he characterised as “textbook ethnic cleansing,” citing damage to homes, infrastructure, and civil records. He drew parallels with past conflicts in the Balkans that led to international criminal prosecutions.

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