US-Iran deal reshapes regional security equation, analyst says
Iranian residents have expressed mixed reactions to the US Iran deal. Some are cautiously welcoming, while others remain sceptical, citing past US failures to fully commit, particularly with the JCPOA. Many hope the deal will ease economic hardship and improve livelihoods. Ali Akbar Dareini, a researcher at the Tehran based Center for Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera that Iran achieved its strategic objectives. He explained that Iran imposed a two phase structure on the talks, despite US insistence on a single package. The first phase includes confidence building measures; the second phase will address a final deal. Dareini stressed that from Iran's standpoint, the memorandum of understanding is a continuation of war – not an agreement, but a limited deal for a limited period. Iran must verify US and Israeli compliance. Dareini described Iran as the victor because the US agreed to the two phase format. Iran gives no concessions in phase one other than agreeing to discuss nuclear issues later and reopening the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian management. The US must end the war on all fronts (including Lebanon), release Iranian assets, end the blockade and suspend sanctions. On Lebanon, Dareini said Iran has introduced a new regional security order that constrains Israel's freedom of action: if Israel attacks Lebanon, Iran will attack Israel directly. The US cannot separate the wars. Israel's attack on Dahiyeh accelerated Iran's leverage, and Iran cancelled a planned retaliation after obtaining US concessions to “tame its rabid dog Israel”. If Israel violates the MOU, Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz again and punish Israel. Regarding the Strait, Dareini said it will be reopened under Iranian management – no military ships allowed, fees imposed by Iran, and a safe corridor for commercial vessels. The US has agreed, even if not publicly stated.
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