Choosing A Presidential Candidate: Nigeria’s Ruling APC And Ghana’s NPP Dynamics

Politics is a game of strategy and numbers. It is not a game of magic or lotto. Your strategic calculations must lead you to high numbers, victory and power, not low numbers, defeat and opposition.

As a political party, the NPP’s current winning strategy is to pick a Christian from the South plus a Muslim from the North. This strategy, which has won us four terms of power, was developed based on the nature of our political market. In other words, numbers informed the strategy – that is, picking a candidate from a dominant group always gives one advantage.

From every indication, the APC of Nigeria, seems to have similar numbers-based strategy that informed the selection of their presidential candidate for the 2023 election. From the look of things, as it happened in Nigeria, so shall it happen in Ghana that:

• The Nigerian president and his vice president are exiting together after serving two terms.
• The Ghanaian president and his vice president will also exit together after serving two terms.
• The Vice President of Nigeria lost woefully because the delegates didn’t consider him to be marketable enough even though he is a good person. The APC delegates knew marketability of a product depends more on the nature of the market than the nature of the product itself.
• The Vice President of Ghana will lose woefully because the delegates don’t consider him to be marketable enough even though he is a good person. NPP delegates also know that marketability of a product depends more on the nature of the market than the nature of the product itself.
• The President of Nigeria supported his Christian Vice President who lost badly because the ACP delegates saw something the president didn’t see. They saw that should they pick the Vice President, the opposition candidate would have advantage over him.
• The President of Ghana is supporting his Muslim Vice President who will lose badly because the NPP delegates also see something perhaps the president doesn’t see. They see that should they pick the Vice President, the opposition candidate would have advantage over him.
• Nigeria is a Muslim-dominated country (52%, according to Wikipedia), so the delegates thought it wise to present a MUSLIM CANDIDATE FROM THE SOUTH, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, against a MUSLIM CANDIDATE OF THE OPPOSITION PDP FROM THE NORTH, Mr. Atiku Abubakar.
• Ghana is a Christian-dominated country (71.2% according to Wikipedia), so the delegates will also wisely present a CHRISTIAN CANDIDATE FROM THE SOUTH, Alan Kyerematen, against a CHRISTIAN CANDIDATE OF THE OPPOSITION NDC FROM THE NORTH, Mr. John Mahama.
• APC voting for a Muslim candidate, doesn’t mean they hate Christians in the party. It is only a matter of strategic decision that was taken based on the nature of the political market and current dynamics in the country.
• NPP voting for a Christian candidate, doesn’t mean we hate the Muslims in the party. It is also a matter of strategic decision that was taken based on the nature of the political market and the current dynamics in the country.

Let’s do what would give us power, not what would please a group of people who are bent on controlling the party no matter the consequences. In politics, power comes first, any other thing comes second. So, like the APC delegates in Nigerian, let’s be more power-conscious than money-conscious. Yes money would come, but take it as the reward for your sweat in 2016 and 2020.

Shalom shalom!

E. G. Buckman