Poll on Bawumia and Mahama: The road to Jubilee House

Ever since presidential candidates were elected to lead both NPP and NDC, many polls have been conducted to see who will be the winner of the general elections of 2024. Interestingly the results of almost all the polls tilted positively towards Mahama. This article is based on the poll conducted on 9th November 2023 by Global Info Analytics (GIA).

Mahama has said before that Ghanaians have short memories and therefore any corruption, economic mess or wrongdoing by him and his NDC government will never be remembered since it will be drowned by the massive corruption and financial and economic waste by president Akufo-Addo and his NPP government. This gives him hope to become the next president in 2024/25 general elections.

Bawumia, on the other hand, has never been president before. He has been the Vice president for seven years. He is known for a number of things. When the NPP came to power for the first time, they inherited a dollar-cedi rate of 1 dollar to 4ghs. Bawumia ridiculed the situation and blamed Mahama for economic mismanagement. He told Ghanaians that he had locked the dollar in prison and given the key to the Inspector General of Police. As an economic expert, he assured Ghanaians that before they leave office, they will bring the dollar down. You and I are aware today the dollar has risen to 1 dollar to GHc14! Is Mahama not vindicated?

Bawumia is widely appreciated for his digitalisation programme. This gave him the accolade, Dr Digital. Institutions and several health facilities were digitalised. With Bawumia's pursuit of digitalization, it is now possible to open a new account at a Bank from your mobile phone without going to the bank. You can renew the NHIS card on your mobile phone. Dr Bawumia listed the networking of hospitals, provision of medical drones and the establishment of the e-pharmacy platform as the major interventions brought to health care in Ghana by digitalization.

Both Bawumia and Mahama have played their roles. Let's see what a recent poll says about who is likely to become the next president. How does it look like nationally as they prepare for the national elections.

What came into your mind as being the main reason for voting for the person you voted for? 23 percent said they voted for the one who they feel can best manage the economy. 21 percent said they voted for the person whose competence level is high. 17 percent said they would vote for the candidate who is less corrupt. 16 percent will vote for the one who has integrity. 13 percent said they will vote for the man who is on his own and not dependent on others for instruction. 10 percent also said they will vote for a leader who can transform Ghana.

On, who can best manage the economy, 47 percent said Mahama. 21 percent said they would vote for Dr Bawumia. How does it look in the race between Mahama and Bawumia. In April Mahama had 55 percent and Bawumia 37 percent. The poll continued in July. It is a well-known fact that if you win Western, Central still maintained 55 percent but Mahana had 37 percent, losing 1 percent to somebody else. Bawumia is still trailing behind Mahama.

How many regions did Dr Bawumiah win in the polls? He won five regions and these are: Ahafo 66 percent, Ashanti, 54 percent, Brong, 50 percent, North East, 56 percent and Upper West, 50 percent. Mahama won the rest of the regions in Ghana. Mahama won 70 percent in the Northern region, 70 percent, greater Accra, 68 percent, Central region, 65 percent, Western region, 50 percent. It is a well-known fact that if one wins Western, Central and Greater Accra regions, one is likely to emerge victorious in the 2024 general elections.

On who will best manage the economy, 68 percent voted for Mahama and 38 percent voted for Dr. Bawumia. When it came to Confidence, 68 percent voted for Mahama and 38 percent voted for Dr Bawumia. When it came to who then can fight corruption, 63 percent voted for Mahama and 40 percent voted for Dr Bawumia.The president who will not be manipulated by the party bigwigs and therefore be a man of his own, ,53 percent voted for Mahama and 40 percent went to Bawumia. On intergrity, 53 percent voted for Mahama and 38 percent voted for Dr Bawumia.

Mahama has taken a commanding lead in the polls. Mahama once told Ghanaians that they have short memories. He is not far from right. Ghanaians seem to have forgotten the harsh inconvenience the dumso brought them. Corruption was the order in Mahama's government. The Northern projects fiasco, graduate unemployment and many more. One positive thing was that Mahama was able to bring down the exchange rate to GHc4 to 1 dollar. When the NDC emptied the national coffers with balloon contracts, no one thought Mahama would dare stand for president again. However, he is bouncing back because he is fully aware that the electorate will never remember his shortcomings and misrule.

When the NPP took over from the NDC, Bawumia became the head of the Economic Management team. In one of his speeches, he ridiculed Mahama and called him incompetent for weakening the economy. Under his management the dollar broke loose and 1 dollar rose to GHc14. It has come a bit down to GHc12. What should Mahama say to Dr Bawumia?

Who, then, becomes the next occupant of the Jubilee/Flagstaff House? Your guess is as mine.

Stephen Atta Owusu