Gloom Over Cocoa Production

Cocoa production is expected to drop significantly in the coming months as a result of climate change which is threatening many countries across the world, according to a new report released yesterday, September 29, 2011.

This means Cote d' Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria, the world's top three largest producers, will lose substantial revenue.

Cocoa contributes significantly to Ghana's total exports annually and provides livelihood for several thousands of farmers.

But the report-the first of its kind into the likely effects of climate change on cocoa production in the region – anticipates that areas of cocoa suitability will begin to decline as soon as 2030, as average temperatures increase by one degree Celsius.

The new research reveals that an expected annual temperature rise of more than two degrees Celsius by 2050 will leave many of West Africa's cocoa-producing areas too hot for chocolates.

The study was conducted by climate scientists at the Colombia-based International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)

More than half of the world's chocolate comes from the cocoa plantations of Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, and the research emphasized that by 2050, a rise of 2.3 degrees Celsius will drastically affect production in lowland regions, including the major cocoa-producing areas of Moyen-Comoe, Sud-Comoe and Agneby in Cote d'Ivoire and Western and Brong Ahafo regions in Ghana.

It added that the climate change will not only threaten production of staple food crops, but could transform the cherished chocolate bar into a luxury for few.

The report predicts that the ideal cocoa growing areas will shift to higher altitudes to compensate for the higher temperatures.

'Many of these farmers use their cocoa trees like ATM machines,' said CIAT's Dr. Peter Laderach, the report's lead author. They pick some pods and sell them to quickly raise cash for school fees or medical expenses. The trees play an absolutely critical role in rural life.'

'Already we're seeing the effects of rising temperatures on cocoa crops currently produced in marginal areas, and with climate change these areas are certain to spread. At a time when global demand for chocolate is rising fast, particularly in China, there is already upward pressure on prices. It's not inconceivable that this combined with the impact of climate change, could cause chocolate prices to increase sharply.'

The report made a series of recommendations including suggestions for alternative cash and food crops to help spread the risk of one crop failing, as well as implementing measures to minimize the increasing risk of threat of bushfires during the dry season.

It also urged crop scientists to move fast to head-off the threat to cocoa production and livelihood.

Renewed research into suitable irrigation systems will also be needed, together with the development of government-level policies to help cocoa farmers and the industry as a whole prepare and adapt.

'The good news is that the report quantifies the risks, and pinpoints particularly vulnerable areas in good time for effective action to be taken,' said Laderach.

The research, commissioned by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, used the combined results of 19 climate models to assess the impact on climate change on cocoa production.

It is believed that the results of the cocoa study will assist decision makers in the multi-stakeholder World Cocoa Foundation, Cocoa Livelihoods Project, a public-private partnership to help improve cocoa production and income of farmers in West Africa.

By Charles Nixon Yeboah