UN CRIES WOLF ABOUT AIDS
The UN agency coordinating global action against AIDS is wiping egg off its face after reluctantly admitting it had overestimated India's AIDS problem by more than half--following numerous similar exaggerations world-wide.
In 2005 the Joint United Nation's Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) claimed there were 5.7 million infected with HIV in India, giving India the highest number in the world, but the Indian National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO)figures for 2006 released on Friday lowered the number to 2.5 million--and UNAIDS has had to admit the new estimate is more accurate.
Director Peter Piot, speaking to an AIDS conference in South Africa in June said UNAIDS's work “...is further complicated by the mixed messages circulating around the world” and “denialist statements such as that UNAIDS overestimates the size of the epidemic….” The HIV overestimates made or accepted by UNAIDS in recent years total about 10 million--so who is the real denialist?
Since 2001, UNAIDS has been forced to acknowledge drastically-reduced HIV
prevalence estimates in over a dozen African, Caribbean and Asian
countries, as a result of well-designed “population-based” HIV surveys
(randomly selected samples of urban and rural populations). Kenya's HIV
estimate was reduced from about 2.3 million to 1.1 million in 2003.
Ethiopia's estimate was reduced from nearly two million to about a half
million in 2005. Haiti's estimate of almost 250,000 HIV-infected adults in
2001 was cut to less than 100,000 in 2006.
However, UNAIDS continued to defend its exaggerations up through 2006, as
I pointed out earlier this year in my book “The AIDS Pandemic: the
collision of epidemiology with political correctness.” UNAIDS were quick
to respond to my charges, with spin rather than substance, referring
vaguely to their “scientific approach” to calculating HIV numbers and the
fact they collaborate with experts and governments. They refused to
acknowledge that their approach was wrong or that the figures were bogus
until the Indian revision exposed both. UNAIDS has simply glossed over the
new estimates as being the result of better data and improved methods that
are constantly evolving.
Some AIDS activists say there is no harm in overestimating the current
size and potential severity of the AIDS pandemic since such exaggerations
have successfully provided AIDS programmes with unprecedented global
priority and support.
It needs to be recognized that UNAIDS was established in 1995 as an
advocacy and coordinating agency that almost immediately turned over
responsibility for AIDS programme funding and technical guidance to other
international agencies and donors. However, UNAIDS did not turn over
responsibility for the estimation and projection of HIV/AIDS numbers.
Since UNAIDS has declared itself to be primarily an advocacy agency, its
objectivity in making or accepting high HIV estimates and projections
needs to be questioned.
UNAIDS, AIDS programme advocates and activists have certainly used
inflated HIV numbers effectively in their aggressive struggle for an
increasing share of the limited international health budget. This success,
however, has come at the expense of other equally urgent public health
needs.
Regardless of UNAIDS's systematic overestimation of HIV numbers, the
severity of the AIDS pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa requires that AIDS
programmes in this region continue to receive the highest public health
priority. In India too, whether HIV prevalence is close to six million or
“only” 2.5 million, AIDS remains a serious public health problem in this
populous country.
A UNAIDS spokesperson has said that the new calculation for India reduces
the world estimate to about 37.5 million people and that UNAIDS does not
expect any more revisions from countries with major HIV and AIDS
epidemics: “India was the last unknown.”
Continued
In 2005 the Joint United Nation's Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) claimed there were 5.7 million infected with HIV in India, giving India the highest number in the world, but the Indian National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO)figures for 2006 released on Friday lowered the number to 2.5 million--and UNAIDS has had to admit the new estimate is more accurate.
Director Peter Piot, speaking to an AIDS conference in South Africa in June said UNAIDS's work “...is further complicated by the mixed messages circulating around the world” and “denialist statements such as that UNAIDS overestimates the size of the epidemic….” The HIV overestimates made or accepted by UNAIDS in recent years total about 10 million--so who is the real denialist?
Since 2001, UNAIDS has been forced to acknowledge drastically-reduced HIV
prevalence estimates in over a dozen African, Caribbean and Asian
countries, as a result of well-designed “population-based” HIV surveys
(randomly selected samples of urban and rural populations). Kenya's HIV
estimate was reduced from about 2.3 million to 1.1 million in 2003.
Ethiopia's estimate was reduced from nearly two million to about a half
million in 2005. Haiti's estimate of almost 250,000 HIV-infected adults in
2001 was cut to less than 100,000 in 2006.
However, UNAIDS continued to defend its exaggerations up through 2006, as
I pointed out earlier this year in my book “The AIDS Pandemic: the
collision of epidemiology with political correctness.” UNAIDS were quick
to respond to my charges, with spin rather than substance, referring
vaguely to their “scientific approach” to calculating HIV numbers and the
fact they collaborate with experts and governments. They refused to
acknowledge that their approach was wrong or that the figures were bogus
until the Indian revision exposed both. UNAIDS has simply glossed over the
new estimates as being the result of better data and improved methods that
are constantly evolving.
Some AIDS activists say there is no harm in overestimating the current
size and potential severity of the AIDS pandemic since such exaggerations
have successfully provided AIDS programmes with unprecedented global
priority and support.
It needs to be recognized that UNAIDS was established in 1995 as an
advocacy and coordinating agency that almost immediately turned over
responsibility for AIDS programme funding and technical guidance to other
international agencies and donors. However, UNAIDS did not turn over
responsibility for the estimation and projection of HIV/AIDS numbers.
Since UNAIDS has declared itself to be primarily an advocacy agency, its
objectivity in making or accepting high HIV estimates and projections
needs to be questioned.
UNAIDS, AIDS programme advocates and activists have certainly used
inflated HIV numbers effectively in their aggressive struggle for an
increasing share of the limited international health budget. This success,
however, has come at the expense of other equally urgent public health
needs.
Regardless of UNAIDS's systematic overestimation of HIV numbers, the
severity of the AIDS pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa requires that AIDS
programmes in this region continue to receive the highest public health
priority. In India too, whether HIV prevalence is close to six million or
“only” 2.5 million, AIDS remains a serious public health problem in this
populous country.
A UNAIDS spokesperson has said that the new calculation for India reduces
the world estimate to about 37.5 million people and that UNAIDS does not
expect any more revisions from countries with major HIV and AIDS
epidemics: “India was the last unknown.”
Continued
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