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Cold War Wake-up Call As Russia Follows US Out Of Nuclear Deal

By Jan van der Made - RFI
United States REUTERSMarcos BrindicciFile Photo
MAR 6, 2019 LISTEN
REUTERS/Marcos Brindicci/File Photo

Vladimir Putin has officially suspended Russia's participation in a key Cold War-era arms treaty, following a US decision to ditch the same deal. The move was taken following what the Kremlin called "a violation by the United States of its obligations". Is it a step back towards a Cold War standoff?

“We are living in a really dangerous time,” says Beatrice Fihn, executive director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Arms (ICAN), the organisation which won the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize.

“All the nuclear armed states are investing in and modernising their nuclear arsenals.”

Apart from the US and Russia withdrawing from the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, signed in 1988 between then presidents Michael Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan, we have seen a sharp increase in the level of hostility between nuclear armed states India and Pakistan, the US walking away from the Iran nuclear deal, and Washington facilitating the transfer of nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia.

On high alert

According to the 2018 Status of World Nuclear Forces published by the Federation of American Scientists, the world has combined stockpiles of 14,485 nuclear warheads, of which 3,750 are deployed with operational forces. Of those, some 1,800 US, Russian British and French warheads are “on high alert,” according to the group.

In terms of deployed warheads, the US leads the pack with 1750 warheads, followed by Russia with 1600. A distant third is France, with 300 warheads, followed by China with 280 and the UK with 215. Pakistan and India have 150 and 140 warheads respectively, Israel 80 and North Korea is estimated to have 15 nuclear bombs.

Developing countries

Undeterred, Fihn and ICAN are fighting to completely abolish nuclear arms with a campaign in support of the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

“The majority of states in the world are supporting this treaty,” she says.

“We have seventy states that have signed it, 22 that have ratified it. When it hits fifty, it will become official international law.”

But an ICAN map shows that none of the countries that have a nuclear weapons program (like the US, Russia, China and others), or that host nuclear weapons (like western European Nato-members such as Belgium and the Netherlands) or are in a 'nuclear alliance' (like Canada, Australia, Japan or South Korea) did not pledge any endorsement, and it is mainly developing countries which never had nuclear weapons, that have supported the UN treaty.

Still, Fihn is undeterred.

ICAN's lobbying “is creating a lot of pressure on the nuclear armed states,” she says, citing the State of California and the City of Los Angeles in the US that support the treaty. In Scotland, according to Fihn, “people want Scotland to join this treaty and they want the UK to get rid of nuclear weapons in Scotland.”

Apart from directly lobbying governments, ICAN wants to indirectly target the weapons industry. “Somebody is making money from this new nuclear arms race,” says Fihn, describing divestment campaigns to discourage banks, pension funds and financial institutions from investing in companies that produce nuclear weapons.

“We've seen that this is very effective in other weapons issues,” citing international campaigns against cluster bombs. “American producers of these weapons dropped that from their portfolio. And it shows that stigmatisation and pressure can produce change,” she says.

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