Two Dominant Parties Can Still Shape Nigeria’s Future

This may seem strange.
I am one of those who had always been convinced that subsequent governments in Nigeria had left a lot to be desired in the true democratic governance of the country. That is true at least in the estimation of the generality of the Nigerian populace. So, with millions of other Nigerians, especially those of us in the Diaspora, I had also called for a change of government. I had called for a change from the old brigade of foot soldiers who have continued to rule the country since it had independence in 1960 and who have widely insisted on a recycling system of government to a brand new set of political leaders who would take more interest in the welfare of a majority of Nigerian families.

Be that as it may, the recent decamping of career politicians from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and in some cases from PDP to APC seems to have ushered in a new possibility that has arisen within the Nigerian political terrain.

If we take a close look at the democratic evolution of the two countries we all know have enormous influence on what goes on in Nigeria, the importance of these defections becomes even more glaring.

Take Britain first. Britain practises a multi-party system of government. And since 1920, two parties have dominated the political scene – the Conservative Party and the Labour Party. Modern Conservative Party was formed around 1830. Labour Party grew out of the trade union movement of the late 19th century.

By 1930, the Labour Party which was third behind the Liberal Party began to stress the need for national planning using nationalization of industry as their yardstick. In line with the constitution of the party, it called for the “common ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange, and the best obtainable system of popular administration and control of each industry or service.”

Then the party rose in British politics, overshadowing the Liberal Party which was the other dominant political party with the Conservatives.

There were other parties in the system, but these two dominant parties have continued over so many decades to alternate governance between them. Political alignments in those days were much more easily contracted than they are now. And so it was relatively simple for the Labour Party to overtake the Liberal Party which had been the main opposition to the Conservatives since the early 1920s.

And then we take America. America practises a two-party political system. Politics in this hugely diversified country is dominated by the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. These two parties have won every United States presidential election since 1852 and have controlled the United States Congress to a great extent since 1856.

So, with the recent defections, it may well be that Nigeria’s political shaping is playing out and what this translates to is that it behoves the state actors to bear in mind where they are coming from and where they are taking the country to by adapting the British and American systems into Nigerian local standards.

When I was considering these new developments and how they were likely to influence the country’s march towards true democracy, a few home truths came to mind and they strengthened my conviction that Nigerian nationalism will come to stay after all.

If we take the experience of the Arab counties, in what was widely known as the Arab Spring in this last decade into consideration, for instance, we now realise that some countries need a strong man to wield them together. America and Britain who sponsored the Arab Spring made that mistake. They did not realize that there were such countries. If the countries have a weak ruler, war lords will tend to spring up from practically every nook and cranny of the country and create intractable problems such as is the case with Boko Haram.

America and Britain ganged up to overthrow Arab leaders who were alleged to be authoritarian. Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Ben Ali in Algeria, Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, among others became victims of that gang-up. But these were nations that needed strong leaders to wield together.

The Western world never knew that much because of the democratic nature of their own societies. Now, it is beginning to dawn on everyone that since those days of regime changes, and the enthronement of young adults into governance positions nothing shows that the new custodians are doing any better than those they ousted. If there are any standards to go by, it is that continuous strife and bloodletting have followed in the wake of the change of governments.

That was one of my fears about Nigerian young adults being saddled with governance of the country.

Any new people coming into the political arena with “new ideas” are most likely to be confronted by two major factors that have largely remained strong and somewhat intractable. The secret influence of the army in the day-to-day running of the government cannot be taken for granted. It is not visible, but it is always there, like the shadow of a man on a hot afternoon. As long as situations can be created that will demand the presence of the army in the internal maintenance of law and order, they will never cease to influence the political system.

The other factor is the civil service. Under subsequent military administrations that ruled Nigeria, the civil service consolidated its grip on government. It saw itself as indispensible, knowing that governments will come and go, but the civil service stays to work with the government of the day. In fact, the civil service came to assume the position of ‘soul of government’. And if they are not getting what they want, from the Permanent Secretary down to the office cleaner, the government is in trouble. No matter how tall it stands, the civil service can sabotage its efforts. And it just means that some of these issues cannot be handled by political greenhorns just smattering from the business class with practically no experience in governance, especially in a country like Nigeria with its multi-ethnic norms.

Now, even assuming there was a possibility of wrestling power from APC or PDP, where would the new party be coming from?

Like the Conservative Party and the Labour Party in Britain and the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in America, the PDP and APC have become the two main dominant parties in Nigeria today. Both are mega-parties. They have their followers. They have made their mistakes. And what I think is that they should learn from those mistakes to make the country a better place.

The only problem right now is that Nigerian politicians are yet to appreciate the need for a shadow government, a strong opposition party that will keep the ruling party alive and sensitive to the aspirations of those who voted it into public office. Under the headline: “What would President Buhari prefer?”, I addressed that issue in my book: “The Presidential Years: From Dr. Jonathan to Gen. Buhari (Vol. 1)” which has just been released for sale by Macauley Publishers of London at £21.99.

Nigerian politicians must appreciate the fact that a ruling party needs a strong opposition to be able to work for the people. And if you ask me: it was partly because President Buhari spent so much of his time running after PDP members who may have stolen money while in office that he saw the need for grooming a strong opposition as a secondary issue. Without a strong opposition, it was difficult for him to know the peoples’ mind or what their aspirations were. Even if he knew, they wouldn’t present a threat to his government and so he wouldn’t be bothered. A strong opposition that is a threat to his government would make him work in the peoples’ interest so that his party can continue to be in government.

That is why, perhaps it has become important for the two dominant political parties in Nigeria today to become institutionalised, although that should not stop other parties from rearing up their heads.

Among the political heavyweights who recently defected from the ruling APC to PDP which can now be regarded as the shadow government was the Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki; Kwara State Governor, Abdulfatah Ahmed; Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom, Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal; National Publicity Secretary of APC, Bolaji Abdullahi and a host of some State Assembly members who were said to be the ‘heart and soul’ of APC.

On why he left the APC back to the PDP, Senate President Bukola Saraki said: “Perhaps, more significantly, I am mindful of the fact that I carry on my shoulder a great responsibility for thousands of my supporters, political associates and friends, who have trusted in my leadership and have attached their political fortunes to mine. However, it is after an extensive consultation with all the important stakeholders that we have come to this difficult but inevitable decision to pitch our political tent elsewhere; where we could enjoy a greater sense of belonging and where the interests of the greatest number of our Nigerians would be best served.

The experience of my people and associates in the past three years is that they have suffered alienation and have been treated as outsiders in their own party. Thus, many have become disaffected and disenchanted. At the same time, opportunities to seek redress and correct these anomalies were deliberately blocked as a government-within-a-government had formed an impregnable wall and left in the cold, everyone else who was not recognized as “one of us”. This is why my people, like all self-respecting people would do, decided to seek accommodation elsewhere.”

Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal announced his defection a day after he called on Nigerians to reject what he described as “prison-yard democracy”. Tambuwal was a member of PDP before he defected to the APC in 2014. He contested as the governor of Sokoto under APC in 2015. His return to PDP has been welcomed by the party in a post on Twitter. Addressing party supporters at the Government House in Sokoto, Tambuwal said his decision to leave the APC was because President Muhammadu Buhari had failed to meet the yearnings of Nigerians. The governor also predicated his decision on Buhari’s inability to tackle insecurity and improve the living conditions of Nigerians.

He said that majority of Nigerians are currently facing hardship, frustration and penury as a result of the ineptitude of the present administration. Tambuwal recalled that he left the PDP for APC in 2014 as a result of bad governance but not much had changed in the last three years. “Things are really getting worse. Therefore, with other leaders, we decided to form a new force to fine-tune and restructure the polity for a better Nigeria.

The situation of our country, especially the economy and security is getting worse. People are being killed in Zamfara State on a daily basis. The situation of the common man is very precarious. That is why we decided to join forces with other progressive Nigerians to get a new competent leadership that can deliver the goods and rescue the country from the current hardship,” he said.

The governor alleged that the people of Sokoto State had not benefited from any single project initiated by the federal government in the last three years. “So, the people of the state are fed up with the current situation, and therefore called on us to intervene and dump the APC,” he said.

Kwara State Governor, Abdulfatah Ahmed, recalled how key stakeholders in the ruling APC in the state built the party in 2014 alongside other notable Nigerians with high expectations but were disappointed about the failure of the government at national level to address insecurity, economy and unemployment challenges confronting the nation. He said the leadership of the APC had failed to intervene on critical issues affecting the party and its members, pointing out that injustice within the party is unbearable.

Benue State Governor Samuel Ortom said: “I have consulted widely with our elders, our youths and all the elected representatives of the people of Benue State, including council chairmen and councillors. They have unanimously endorsed that my stay in the APC has expired and I should look for another platform and that they would all follow me. I recall that I had issues with the leader of the APC in Benue State and while the national leadership of the party was trying to resolve it, the party in the state embarked on aggressive campaign of calumny against me. It is on that note that I tender my resignation letter to my ward chairman of APC, who also promised to follow me wherever I want to go, while 10 of the 17 APC members of Benue State House of Assembly have also indicated that they are moving with me to any platform I choose.

The situation appears quite interesting, if you ask me. Many are asking: could these developments now mark the beginning of the end of the road for the APC in government? No one is sure. But what seems to be playing out is that Nigeria’s political progress and democratic evolution seem to be on course. And like it is in Britain and America, while Nigerians remain the umpires at the polls with their PVCs, these two dominant political parties by being the government and shadow government can still hold the magic wand to positively shape the destiny of Nigeria.

• Asinugo is a London-based journalist, author of “The Presidential Years: From Dr. Jonathan to Gen. Buhari” (Vol. 1) and publisher of Imo State Business Link Magazine.