The two-horse race

The race has assumed an interesting dimension

Under the Fourth Republic, it has often been assumed that elections are all about the economy. This just isn't true. Jerry Rawlings' popularity from the 1980s through the 1990s stemmed as much from a rejection of the arrogance displayed by the inept and hopelessly corrupt military rulers who preceded his 19-year rule. And voting patterns since 1992 have shown that the Ghanaian electorate has no stomach for arrogant leaders, as compared to how much they can stomach economic hardship.

The 2000 elections that brought the New Patriotic Party (NPP) to power pivoted on protest votes against arrogant National Democratic Congress parliamentarians, as much as it was influenced by the deteriorating economic conditions of the time.

And the outcome of the current elections reveals a widespread rejection of the arrogance displayed by party executives and parliamentarians of the various parties who lost their seats in constituencies considered to be safe havens

I won't argue that our elections are all about a rejection of the arrogance of power, but they are certainly not all about the economy. The December 28 presidential run-off will contain a massive element of abhorrence for political arrogance.

I have no wish to advise you on how to vote. That decision is yours. Neither will I pretend to guide the candidates on how to win more votes. What I'm trying to do is describe the mood of the electorate after the just ended polls and how each candidate is likely to respond to it to solicit votes.

In considering whether to vote for Atta Mills or Akufo-Addo, it is obviously necessary to consider their personal utterances, as well as that of their parties' propagandists and leaders. There is need for caution about campaign assertions. Many of our politicians have metamorphosed into different beings shortly after obtaining power. What a candidate says is not always an indicator of what the one is thinking.

What they're saying

Immediately after the Electoral Commissioner, Dr. Kwadwo Afari-Gyan, confirmed the widely expected result that none of the candidates obtained the needed 50 percent threshold, the two leading candidates and their camps addressed the public, giving early indications of what tactics they each intend to adopt in the next three weeks to the poll.

Atta Mills said he would reduce ex-pump fuel prices within the first hundred days of his administration, signaling he is going to play the economy card. This could be a smart move or dumb, considering who's listening to him. The urban transport services operators are saying it is long overdue and are excited. Not so the executives of the financial services sector and other corporate executives, who seem not to have forgotten what a similar policy in 2000, by Mills' NDC, did to the economy. Given the current volatility in crude oil prices, the executives say they hope it's only campaign rhetoric. The NPP have however parried that early punch by reducing fuel prices by as much as 17 percent.

A lot more of such promises are likely to flow thick and fast from Mills' camp. If the assumption that protest votes account for more of the swing votes, this tactic may not pull in as many votes as may be wished for. The question is whether the NPP would be able to effectively parry all such jabs.

His second tactic may however yield better results. Atta Mills threw his doors wide open to welcome all other losing presidential candidates to team up with him to emphasise to the electorate that change is possible. Paa Kwesi Nduom is reported to have stepped through those doors already, obviously to see if he could negotiate a deal that would provide him a platform on which to rebuild his gutted CPP.

If Mills is able to pull this off, it may assure him of a substantial amount of votes - provided those candidates are able to whip up enough fervour among their rank and file to turn out at the polls once again.

Of course there are a number of ifs with this tactic, but its attraction lies in the fact that its outcome is quantifiable to an appreciable extent and in a two-horse race, a clear distance between you and your contestant is always a huge psychological advantage.

Akufo-Addo's camp, on the other hand, indicated it was going to eat humble pie and appeal to sympathizers who revolted against the party. A daunting challenge, it may seem, especially since the time available is barely three weeks to tour the whole country and appeal to a highly dispirited party following.

On closer observation, however, there could be substantial pockets of revolting members who could be approached. For example, in the Ablekuma South constituency in the Greater Accra Region, the NPP in 2004 won the parliamentary seat with over 60,000 votes. This year they obtained about 50,000 while the NDC candidate obtained around 56,000. The presidential candidates of both parties, however, polled about 50,000 votes each. Clearly a substantial number of NPP sympathizers revolted against their parliamentary candidate, but did not endorse Mills. Such and other 'skirt and blouse' NPP areas could be targeted with such appeals.

But expect the whole of the Ashanti Region, particularly, to be bombarded with NPP appeals. And don't be too surprised if tribal sentiments are whipped up.

Of course, do not expect the NPP not to expend time and effort at wooing the other failed presidential candidates as well, but that will not be its greatest effort since it does not have the luxury of time for prolonged negotiations.

Who wins?

I suspect Akufo-Addo will have to make wild offers and promises - just as Mills is offering to subsidize consumption in a time of global economic downturn and dwindling national reserves - in addition to unusual measures such as recent reports of government's attempt to free 5,000 commercial drivers jailed under the new motor traffic laws. The approaches of both candidates are bound to devolve into complex tactics within the next couple of weeks, where the devil will be in the detail and the details will require our careful scrutiny.

However, ultimately, it is the candidate (as well as executives of the party) who doesn't come across as arrogant who will carry the day, I suspect.

Both parties have benefitted from, just as they have suffered from, protest votes in each party's two-term rule (don't forget, even in the current elections, some NDC candidates like Kumbuor and Ayarega could be victims of this phenomenon).

And now, barely one percentage point separates the two horses in this three-week dash for the ultimate. The winner will require substantial virtue - and I suspect that neither candidate will be judged on what they say, but how they say it.

Perhaps the beginning of the end of arrogant power in Ghanaian politics begins with these two fine gentlemen who, incidentally, are not competing against each other for the first time.

I know that given the current equal-split in the country regarding who should lead us, it would take a very clever, cunning candidate to tip the scales in his favour. Arrogance, in utterance and deed, could prove fatal.

Credit: Emmanuel Kwablah: [email protected]
Source: B&FT