London, United Kingdom – Policy & Strategy Associates, Inc. surveys in all ten Regions of Ghana show the NDC's Atta Mills enters the final month of the Election 2008 Campaign in a very favourable position to be elected President of the Republic of Ghana, having made significant inroads on formerly NPP turf, while NPP candidate Nana Akufo-Addo plays competitive defence.
In a comprehensive survey and analyses of the polling data, the National Average of all regional polls indicate 53.6% of respondents favour the NDC's Atta Mills to be elected Ghana's next head of state as against 42.0% that favour NPP's Nana Akufo-Addo.
The surveys were conducted from Oct. 25 to Nov. 7, 2008. November 7 is exactly one calendar month to the actual polling day on December 7. Sample sizes in each region ranged from 720-765, with a margin of error of +/-4.0%. In total, more than 7, 000 people were polled in various informal, relaxed surveys across the country.
It must be noted that this polling exercise is the third research exercise sponsored by young Ghanaian professionals who are independent, multi-partisan working associates of the Policy & Strategy Associates, Inc. in the Diaspora.
The first two exercises, carried out between the months of June and September were for our internal research purposes. The average of both earlier exercises as compared to the latest exercise shows a slight tightening in the race, especially with the gains of both frontrunners in their traditional electoral "world banks".
All in all, the overall outlook indicate election 2008 will be the most challenging to both the ruling NPP and the opposition NDC, given the statistically significant large margin of error (+ or – 4%) that allows for a balanced assessment of the various strategies and risks associated with forecasting the eventual outcome of the election.
This poll is just a scientific sampling of voter opinion. Our special thanks go to our small team of hardworking post-secondary and tertiary level students who helped locally in conducting this exercise in all the ten Regions surveyed.
Here are the Regions where Atta Mills leads:
Greater Accra Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7
Atta Mills NDC 55.0% Akufo-Addo NPP 43.0% Other/Not Sure 2.0%
Brong Ahafo Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7
Atta Mills NDC 54.7% Akufo-Addo NPP 43.1% Other/Not Sure 2.2%
Northern Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7
Atta Mills NDC 60.7% Akufo-Addo NPP 33.4% Other/Not Sure 5.9%
Volta Region Oct 25 - Nov. 7
Atta Mills NDC 84.8% Akufo-Addo NPP 13.6% Other/Not Sure 1.6%
Upper East Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7
Atta Mills NDC 56.4% Akufo-Addo NPP 29.7% Other/Not Sure 13.9%
Upper West Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7
Atta Mills NDC 60.5% Akufo-Addo NPP 30.8% Other/Not Sure 8.7%
Here are the Regions where Akufo-Addo leads:
Eastern Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7
Akufo-Addo NPP 58.5% Atta Mills NDC 40.7% Other/Not Sure 0.8%
Ashanti Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7
Akufo-Addo NPP 68.7% Atta Mills NDC 30.2% Other/Not Sure 1.1%
Western Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7
Akufo-Addo NPP 53.5% Atta Mills NDC 43.1% Other/Not Sure 3.4%
A dead heat is more likely to be in the Central Region as indicated by the polling figures below, with NDC Presidential Candidate John Atta Mills winning more of the combination of the NPP, NDC and swing voter political base than NPP Presidential Candidate Akufo-Addo.
Central Region Oct 25-Nov. 7
Atta Mills NDC 50.6% Akufo-Addo NPP 45.8% Other/Not Sure 3.6%
The NDC Presidential Candidate John Atta Mills leads by nearly five points here, which is helpful for him since it is narrowly outside the + or – 4% margin of polling error, but Akufo-Addo still maintains a small edge among soft NPP leaning voters who may be the final deciders of the popular vote winner in the Central region.
Both Akufo-Addo's and Atta Mills's support among their core NPP and NDC political base is very strong here as Atta Mills consolidates his broader support among all three groups including bigger support among swing voters than we saw in previous elections.
Overall, the NATIONAL AVERAGE of all regional polls suggests an Atta Mills (NDC) win as he leads by 53.67% to Akufo-Addo (NPP) 42.01%. This also assumes a similar error margin of + or – 4%.
National Polling Average of all ten Regions Oct 25 -Nov. 7
Atta Mills NDC 53.67% Akufo-Addo NPP 42.01%
Our conclusion from what the data suggests is that, in the event the NPP candidate outperforms our polls in the actual election by the total positive margin of error of +4%, and the NDC candidate underperforms by the total negative margin of error of -4%, the election could go into a run-off with the NDC candidate still leading but just falling slightly short of the 50% plus 1 single vote (needed to win a first round) at 49.6% to the NPP candidate's 46.0%.** This promises to be a very interesting election indeed!!!
**Note: This is computed as 53.67% minus 4% which equals 49.67% for the NDC and assumes plus 4% for the NPP's 42.01% which equals 46.01%.
Prince Kassim, Associate & Report