Fitch Solutions says Ghana economy resilient amid US-Iran tensions
Fitch Solutions has projected that Ghana’s economy will remain largely insulated from the impact of the ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran, citing strong performance in the gold sector and improved macroeconomic stability.
“This is largely due to the country's strong gold sector and improved macroeconomic fundamentals,” it said.
According to risk analysts, persistently high global gold prices continue to serve as a key buffer for the Ghanaian economy, helping to absorb potential external shocks arising from geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
As Africa’s leading gold exporter, Ghana is expected to benefit significantly from elevated gold prices, despite recent fluctuations on the global market.
Although prices have moderated slightly since the conflict intensified in late February, Fitch Solutions noted they remain historically strong, supporting export revenues and boosting foreign exchange inflows.
With gold contributing about 75 percent of Ghana’s total merchandise exports in 2025, the firm said the sector will remain central to maintaining external stability and easing pressure on both the balance of payments and the cedi.
The outlook is further reinforced by expectations of increased production in 2026, with output projected to rise by 7.1 percent, driven by expansions at major mining operations such as Bibiani, Chirano and Namdini.
As a result, gold export earnings are forecast to climb by nearly 13 percent to approximately US$23.7 billion this year.
Fitch Solutions indicated that this strong performance is likely to offset potential challenges posed by rising global energy prices linked to the conflict.
It also pointed to Ghana’s relatively balanced net oil trade position as a factor that could help prevent significant deterioration in the country’s external accounts.
On the fiscal side, the firm highlighted that earlier consolidation measures and the rollout of a new gold royalty regime are expected to help manage spending pressures, even amid global uncertainty.
The mining sector’s strong output is also anticipated to bolster government revenues.
However, Fitch Solutions cautioned that risks remain. It warned that higher global energy prices could drive inflation upward, potentially eroding consumer purchasing power and slowing real Gross Domestic Product growth in the near term.
Despite these concerns, the firm maintained that Ghana’s overall macroeconomic outlook remains relatively stable compared to many of its peers, with the gold sector acting as a crucial buffer against external shocks linked to the US–Iran conflict.