For the second consecutive time, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo has topped Research International's survey of probable voters in the upcoming New Patriotic Party presidential primary.
Of the about 50% of possible voters that R.I. polled across the country, the front runner scored 35%, followed by Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen with 23%. (Alan has thus leaped from third position, which he shared with two others the last time.) Alhaji Aliu Mahama who placed second the last time slipped to third position with 17%, followed by Yaw Osafo Maafo with 5%, while Dr. Kwame Addo Kufuor placed fourth with 4%.
Three people slugged it out at the sixth position with three points: Papa Owusu Ankomah, Hackman Owusu Agyeman and Prof. Kwabena Frimpong Boateng. Dan Kwaku Botwe and Dr. Kofi Konadu Apraku next followed with 2% each, while each of Prof. Mike Oquaye, Jake Otanka Obetsebi-Lamptey, Dr. Arthur Kennedy and Kwabena Agyei Agyepong picked 1 % apart. The rest scored nothing at all, says the R.I. and that refers to Dr. Djan Bafour Awuah, Lawyer Kwaku Kodua, Boakye Agyarko and Felix Owusu Agyepong.
Details of the report are that the topmost candidate remained solid in the Asante, Brong Ahafo, Eastern, and Western regions. But the three northern regions remained firmly under the control of Alhaji Mahama. It added that Alan K., the rising star, topped Nana Akufo-Addo "marginally" in the capital region of Greater Accra.
The data has changed a bit, compared with what R.I. came up with the other time. On September 27, the local media reported that the R.I. had concluded that Nana Akufo-Addo had breasted the tape and Veep Aliu Mahama had placed second.
With the sample size of 2,021 of the targeted 2,320 respondents comprising NPP regional and constituency executives across the country and the voting public, the finding put out five aspirants as the forces to reckon with. In that September poll, Alan Kyerematen, Osafo Maafo and Addo Kufuor were virtually tied for the third position, the polls results dubbed Project Wave One indicated.
According to that poll, five aspirants: Dr. Arthur Kennedy, Boakye Kyeremanteng Agyarko, Felix Owusu Agyepong, Prof. Mike Oquaye and Prof. Kwabena Frimpong Boateng were the least recognised aspirants, recording zero percent each. In that poll, which was two dimensional, Akufo-Addo scored 38% from party executives and 30% from public votes. Aliu had 18% from party votes and 23% from public voting. That poll was carried out between June 22 and July 10 of this year.
But a spokesman for Nana Akufo-Addo said his man could make even a better showing in the northern regions soon when he storms the place. He explains that, for almost a year now, the resigned Foreign Affairs Minister has not toured the north to campaign. "The last time he planned, he was discouraged by the floods that wreaked havoc on our northern brothers and sisters."
Research International's method of finding the preference of the New Patriotic Party was that it undertook to talk to five officers of each of the 230 constituency executive committees. Fifty percent of the 2,300 officers equal 1,150 but the R.I. was actually able to interview 1,089 or 95%. It is explained that, while the research organization was able to talk to all targeted five in each of the Greater Accra constituencies, it failed to get the maximum five in some of the constituencies of the other regions; hence the 95% success.
Research International is said to be reputed in election and opinion polling, able to foretell the way impending elections are likely to go. Not everybody, however, recognizes the reliability of R.I.'s surveys. Indeed, many of the aspirants have kicked against the result of the last one, rubbishing the modus operandi of the pollsters in a situation where the delegates were yet to be selected.