Nigeria’s Defence Budget (2022–2025/2026) and Security Outcomes

Defence and security remain major budgetary priorities for Nigeria. As the country continues to face insurgency, banditry, kidnappings, and communal violence, allocations to defence and security have grown substantially yet results have been mixed.

Defence and Security Budget by Year (Naira & USD Equivalent)
2022 Budget
Defence & Security Allocation: ₦2.41 trillion (various sources report security totals of ₦2.7 trillion)
USD Equivalent: Exchange rates in 2022 varied widely; official projections were around ₦410 per $1, but parallel rates were higher. Using the projected official rate, $5.9billion – $6.6 billion (approximate).
Context: This represented one of the highest prior security votes, aimed at countering insurgency in the northeast and rising banditry in the northwest.

2023 Budget
Defence & Security Allocation: ₦2.98 trillion (13.4 % of the federal budget)
USD Equivalent: With exchange rates around ₦1,460 – ₦1,500 per $1 in early 2023 environments, that equals about $2.0 billion – $2.1 billion.
Note: This figure included the military, police, intelligence, and paramilitary services.

2024 Budget
Security & Defence Allocation: ₦3.85 trillion (reported by Budget including defence, police, interior and national security services).
USD Equivalent: At exchange rates near ₦1,500 per $1, this corresponds to roughly $2.5 billion – $2.6 billion.

2025 Budget
Defence & Security Allocation: ₦4.91 trillion as proposed, and some estimates show up to ₦6.57 trillion when including all security line items (defence, police, interior, NSA budgets).
USD Equivalent: Using an exchange rate around ₦1,500 per $1, that range is approximately $3.3 billion – $4.4 billion.
Context: Defence and security remained the largest single budgetary category in 2025, underscoring its priority amid persistent security threats.

2026 (Proposed/Projected)
Defence & Security Allocation: ₦5.41trillion in the 2026 budget proposal.
USD Equivalent: With a targeted exchange rate of about ₦1,400per $1, this equals approximately $3.9 billion.
Overall 2026 Budget: The total projected government budget was $40 billion).

How Increased Spending Has Influenced Security
Continued High Levels of Insecurity
Despite rising defence expenditures, Nigeria’s overall security situation remains challenging:

Islamist insurgency in the northeast continues to affect civilian and military targets.
Banditry, kidnappings, and criminal violence persist in multiple regions.
Communal and resource-based conflicts have increased in parts of the middle belt.
Analysts note that simply increasing budget figures does not automatically translate into improved security outcomes without effective strategy, accountability, and systemic reform (e.g., in intelligence, logistics, and coordination).

Some Operational Improvements Linked to Spending
There are notable positive indications where increased funds have helped in specific areas:

Targeted operations have resulted in significant arrests, seizures, and disruption of violent groups. Nigeria’s military reported large-scale operations against militants and oil thieves, freeing kidnappers’ victims and seizing arms.

Pipeline and infrastructure security: Improved coordination between security services has helped reduce oil theft in some areas, boosting revenue and protecting energy assets. (Referenced in broader analyses beyond strict defence budgets.)

Persistent Structural Weaknesses
However, challenges remain that dilute the impact of high budgets:

Corruption and procurement inefficiencies: Large funds are sometimes mismanaged or delayed, reducing operational effectiveness.

Troop welfare and readiness: Higher nominal spending does not always improve equipment, logistics, or morale sufficiently to neutralize threats.

Non-military causes of insecurity: Poverty, unemployment, and social grievances continue to fuel conflict, areas that defence budgets do not directly address.
Summary Table (2022–2026)
Year Defence/Security (₦) Approx. USD Equivalent Key Notes

2022 ₦2.41 – 2.7 trillion $5.9 – $6.6billion (projected) Early increase amid rising insurgency.
2023 ₦2.98 trillion $2.0 – $2.1 billion Major spending item (13.4 %).
2024 ₦3.85 trillion $2.5 billion Continued growth.
2025 ₦4.91 – ₦6.57 trillion $3.3 – $4.4 billion Largest allocation yet.
2026 ₦5.41trillion $3.9 billion Security focus in latest budget.
(USD estimates use approximate exchange rates from budget documents and public reporting.)

Conclusion: Budgets vs. Security Impact
Nigeria’s defence and security budgets have grown substantially in both naira and dollar terms over the past three years, reflecting the government’s priority to confront multiple security crises. These increased allocations:

Helped strengthen specific military operations and responses to large-scale threats.

Provided funding for personnel, equipment, and technology enhancements.

However, persistent insecurity underscores the limits of defence spending alone. To improve security outcomes more meaningfully, complementary reforms including institutional accountability, socio-economic development, community policing, and conflict-resolution mechanisms are crucial.

Mustapha Bature Sallama
Medical Science communicator.
Private Investigator and Criminal
Investigation and Intelligence Analysis,
International Conflict Management and Peace Building. Alumni Gandhi Global Academy United States Institute of Peace.
mustysallama@gmail.com
+233-555-275-880

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