The Sahel in Crisis: Military Rule and the Threat to Stability

The Sahel region has come under increased scrutiny due to the prevalence of military rule. This area has been particularly vulnerable to terrorism and insurgencies, factors that have contributed to a series of coups, disrupting democratic governance. Military leaders have often justified their interventions as necessary to restore order and redirect their nations toward progress. They frequently accuse democratic leaders of corruption and incompetence, using these allegations as a pretext to seize power.

A notable feature of these coups is the phenomenon of a "coup within a coup," wherein factions within the same military force that overthrew a democratic government subsequently turn against each other. This pattern is concerning, suggesting an underlying struggle for power rather than a genuine commitment to national stability and reform. Burkina Faso provides a clear example of this dynamic, with its leader actively involved in the broader series of coups within the region.

Following their expulsion from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the imposition of sanctions, the military governments of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger swiftly consolidated their alliance through the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Established on September 16, 2023, in response to the Nigerien crisis, this mutual defense pact aims to strengthen security cooperation. However, while its primary objective is stability, the region risks deepening polarisation, particularly in the face of persistent terrorist threats and insurgencies.

One of the major challenges facing military-led governments is internal security. Each leader is heavily guarded, reflecting an underlying concern over potential reprisals from within their ranks. The lack of stability within these regimes raises concerns that breakaway factions could retaliate, potentially leading to prolonged conflict and regional instability.

If the AES truly believes that governance is not the military's domain, they should not seek diplomatic recognition. The military's role in governance is strictly to uphold security and sovereignty; it is not intended to assume political leadership. Permitting military rulers to portray themselves as the solution to national crises, despite their unconstitutional seizure of power, is unacceptable. No amount of diplomacy or negotiation can legitimise their actions, as their rule ultimately risks further insurgencies and instability. If the AES claims to offer solutions, it must swiftly outline a transition plan to restore governance to civilian leadership. A select few cannot monopolise national governance while disregarding the people's will.

Supposed Ibrahim Traoré, Assimi Goïta, and Abdourahamane Tchiani believe there are fundamental flaws within democratic governance, their responsibility should be to reform and strengthen democratic institutions per African political realities. Constitutional amendments could address systemic weaknesses, preventing future corruption and instability. However, military governance is inherently non-participatory and restricts civic engagement. If military rule is to be imposed, all prospective leaders would require military training—a model incompatible with democratic principles.

ECOWAS must enhance its efforts to amplify the voices of the people in these nations. The international community should also strengthen civil society organisations, empowering them to resist lawlessness and advocate for democratic governance. Political parties must be supported to reclaim their rights and participation in governance. A nation does not belong solely to those who wield military power or possess the greatest arsenal. Governance is a participatory process and should not be subverted by military rule. History demonstrates that military governments breed internal instability, factional conflicts, and repeated coups. Such governance structures are unsustainable and should not be encouraged.

Isaac Ofori
Social Activists and Human Rights Advocate
[email protected]