Five Years On, AfCFTA Struggles to Deliver on Its Promise

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been hailed as a transformative agreement with the potential to boost intra-African trade and accelerate economic development.

It was officially launched during the 12th Extraordinary Session of the Assembly of the Union on the AfCFTA in Niamey, Niger, on July 7, 2019. Trading under the agreement commenced on January 1, 2021.

It aimed to transform trade by establishing a unified market of 1.3 billion people, with forecasts suggesting it could add $450 billion in revenue by 2035. In terms of trade activity, intra-African trade grew by 3.2% in 2023, reaching $192.2 billion.

Five years down the line, yet implementation has been sluggish. As of 2025, 54 out of 55 African Union member countries have signed the agreement. Eritrea remains the only country yet to sign.

Additionally, 46 out of 55 African Union member states have ratified the agreement. Yet full execution remains distant, with the goal of removing tariffs on 90% of goods pushed back to 2034.

According to Africa Kiiza, trade policy analyst and author of the report “Assessing Five Years of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA): Proposals on Potential Amendments” AfCFTA’s foundation was built on an overly simplistic assumption—one that could hinder its success.

Kiiza argues that the widely accepted belief that tariff removal and trade liberalization alone will automatically lead to increased trade is misleading. “The idea that liberalization and tariff removal will automatically increase trade is flawed. We must first overcome production-related challenges to truly facilitate exchanges,” he explains.

This, he suggests, is one of the key reasons why intra-African trade has not expanded as quickly as anticipated under AfCFTA.

Many African countries still struggle with low industrial output, making it difficult to meet the demands of a larger integrated market. Poor road networks, inefficient rail systems, and delays at ports make cross-border trade expensive and slow.

More so, some African governments are hesitant to fully commit to AfCFTA due to fears of exposing local industries to increased competition. Non-tariff barriers—such as regulatory inconsistencies and bureaucratic hurdles—continue to pose obstacles to seamless trade.

Kiiza stresses that these hurdles challenge the production capacity of the continent and must be addressed before trade can flourish, reinforcing his point that tariff removal alone is insufficient.

While the agreement holds great promise, its full realization depends on overcoming structural obstacles and ensuring that African economies are adequately prepared to take advantage of the expanded market. Without these critical reforms, the AfCFTA risks falling short of its ambitious goals.

-thehighstreetjournal.com