The Role of Mpuuga's DA in future Uganda politics

Hon. Mathias Mpuuga has launched his political movement, the Democratic Alliance (DA), and it is likely to be eventually registered into a political party before the 2026 elections.

I would say that until a few years ago, Mpuuga blindly trusted Kyagulanyi. He bended over backwards over the appointment of David Rubongoya as Secretary General and Katana as treasurer of the NUP.

However, the shs.500m parliamentary "award" changed all that -- Mpuuga was brutally humiliated when Kyagulanyi publicly called him corrupt, and he later illegally dropped him as vice president Buganda region. So, right now, Mpuuga doesn't trust Kyagulanyi, and the vice versa is true.

The Mengo administration and Catholic church are now Mpuuga's Bulwark against the Kyagulanyi group. They have no choice but to protect him.

The church was partly the fulcrum that sold Kyagulanyi among the non- Muslims, but they were only doing it because of men like Mpuuga and some Buganda leaders. Kyagulanyi was just a singer without any political backbone anywhere, apart from being friends with Gen.Kayihura, Gen.Salim Saleh, and Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba.

With Kyagulanyi now being rightly looked at as a saboteur, I think the church will find a way of discreetly supporting Mpuuga. I can't see them disowning him.

Personally, I think Mpuuga shouldn't stand for presidency in 2026 because he won't win,but, all the same, I think he will do it for the same reasons Kyagulanyi did it in 2020 - form a party, win a few seats in parliament, turn them into a cash cow, enjoy travelling and damn life.

That said, there's no guarantee that he will win his seat again in 2026. So, standing for the presidency gives him another direction to take. It will bring all anti-Kyagulanyi forces into one pool - he will give them a home outside NUP, and that's very important. The downside to it is that he will have to compete with Besigye’s PFF on that front, but good luck to him!

Mpuuga is basically going to serve two purposes in the next few years:

1. Cleanse Kyagulanyism and hooliganism from Buganda politics.

2. Accommodation of anti- Kyagulanyi forces.
Kyagulanyi was a mistake that has highly scarred the Buganda institutions. A mistake that may take long to be corrected, but it will have to be corrected.

If I were Museveni, I would reach out to three groups: Kyagulanyi(NUP), Mpuuga(DA), and Nandala group( FDC), and facilitate them. As a result, It would help to isolate Besigye, while the other three keep fighting one another, and they definitely will.

One thing for sure; NUP is in decline in Buganda, and I can't see them winning more than 25 MP seats in 2026. Mpuuga's DA may win a few seats in Buganda. PFF ,if Besigye is still alive and well in 2026, will likely get, atleast,15 seats outside Buganda, and probably 3 - 5 seats in Buganda. Mpuuga will remain relevant after 2026 if his "party" does well in Buganda.

One more thing; I can see the NUP leaders and foot soldiers spending more time decampaigning Mpuuga more than Museveni in 2026. In 2020-21, they spent more time decorating Besigye with propaganda than anything else. Either way, there's only one winner in all this chaos: Mr.Museveni.