Election 2024: My predictions of Bawumia leading will come true, they’re accurate — Prof Sarpong defends polls

Renowned Ghanaian researcher, Professor Smart Sarpong, has firmly defended his 2024 election poll results, which predict a victory for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.

Speaking on Peace FM’s “Kokrokoo” morning show, the Kumasi Technical University researcher emphasized the credibility of his methodology and track record in election forecasting.

The survey, released on November 23, 2024, shows Dr. Bawumia leading with 49.1% of the votes, followed by the National Democratic Congress (NDC) flagbearer, John Dramani Mahama at 45.8%.

The New Force Movement’s Nana Kwame Bediako is projected to secure 2.2%, while Alan Kyerematen of the Movement for Change is expected to garner 1.2%.

Professor Sarpong attributed his findings to rigorous research methods and statistically robust sample size, dismissing allegations of bias.

“My research is grounded in pure statistics and sound methodology. I’ve followed every principle of academic rigor to ensure my findings reflect what’s happening on the ground,” he stated.

He rejected accusations of being influenced by the NPP, asserting his independence and long-standing credibility in the field.

“I’ve been conducting polls for years, and my predictions are consistently accurate. For instance, in 2020, I predicted the NPP would not achieve their expected percentage, and it came to pass,” he said, referencing his track record.

Professor Sarpong explained that voter behavior patterns in Ghana, especially in key regions, informed his predictions.

“It would defy logic to suggest the NDC might win regions like Ashanti, given historical voting trends. My analysis reflects these realities, ensuring accuracy,” he elaborated.

Professor Sarpong emphasized his transparency and history of precise predictions as further validation of his work.

“Beyond methodology, my transparency speaks for itself. My forecasts have consistently come true, and they’re not just correct but accurate to a significant degree,” he noted.