Prediction Of Ghana’s 2024 Elections Outcome

Ghanaians will go to the polls on the 7th of December 2024 to elect a new president to replace the outgoing president His Excellency Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo with the elections being keenly contested between the current vice president His Excellency Alhaji Dr Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and His Excellency the former president of Ghana, John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC).

Although there have been several predictions on the election outcome by pastors, there exist limited empirical studies predicting the same. To this end, I sourced historical election data on the sitting government from https://ghanaelections.peacefmonline.com/ due to difficulties accessing data from the electoral commission's website to predict the 2024 election outcome. The data was robust compared to that of Wikipedia, except for some slight discrepancies. I also used the Exponential Smoothing Forecasting algorithm for the prediction (interested readers can refer to https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10666-024-09979-5 for more information on this model) and the output is shown in Figure 1.

The outcome shows the NPP securing 48.4% in the 2024 elections. The model also shows the NPP securing 108 parliamentary seats in the 2024 elections. To validate the model's accuracy, I cross-checked the model's output with the 2016 and 2020 election outcomes and it produced 46.8% for the sitting government (NDC) against 44.6% with an error of 2.2% and 53. 4% for the sitting government (NPP) against the 51.2% with an error of 2.2%. The model also predicted 108 parliamentary seats for the sitting government (NDC) in 2016 against the 106 declared results with a deference of 2 seats while accurately predicting 137 parliamentary seats for the NPP in the 2020 elections.

Figure 1. Exponential Smoothing Forecast output

Note: These outcomes are based on past election data and forecasting models accordingly care should be taken when interpreting the outcomes.

About the author
Prof. Isaac Appiah-Otoo currently works as a full Professor at the College of Management Science, Chengdu University of Technology while equally serving as a lecturer at the Oxford Brookes University College affiliated to Chengdu University of Technology. He teaches courses such as Digital Technology and Maths for Business, Exploring Economics, Managing Business Projects, Live Clients Strategic Projects and Research Methods. His research interest lies in applied econometrics, development economics, energy and environmental economics, financial economics, financial technology (fintech), and international finance. His publications have appeared in top-notch journals such as the International Journal of Finance and Economics, International Journal of Energy Research, Energy, Telecommunications Policy, Energy and Environment, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Environmental Modeling & Assessment, Environment, Development and Sustainability, Energy Reports, and Journal of Policy Modeling. He serves as an editorial staff at the Social Sciences & Humanities Open journal and is currently ranked among the World’s TOP 2% Scientists in 2024 https://www.topresearcherslist.com/Home/Profile/880309

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