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SB Morgen's 2024 Election Preview for Ghana Lacks Credibility

Feature Article SB Morgens 2024 Election Preview for Ghana Lacks Credibility
THU, 19 SEP 2024

SB Morgen’s recently released report on Ghana’s 2024 elections cannot be considered credible. The document reveals significant methodological gaps that cast doubt on the accuracy and reliability of its findings. These deficiencies undermine the credibility of their predictions, and one could reasonably conclude that their work was subpar by professional standards.

Firstly, the report lacks a detailed explanation of its sampling methodology. While it mentions the use of desk research, polls, and interviews, it provides no specifics regarding sample sizes, geographic distribution, or demographic breakdown of respondents. These details are essential for evaluating whether the data truly reflects the diverse opinions of Ghana's electorate. Without clarity on these factors, it becomes impossible to determine the representativeness of the results.

Additionally, there is no disclosure of the polling techniques employed. The report references polling but fails to mention crucial aspects such as whether random or stratified sampling was used, or the margin of error for the predictions. In any credible election study, such metrics are critical for assessing the reliability of the findings. For instance, the absence of confidence intervals in the report’s projections calls into question the precision and statistical validity of the data.

Moreover, the report lacks a clear timeline for data collection. It offers projections based on historical data without specifying when the most recent polling took place. The absence of a defined timeframe—such as the month or year the polling was conducted—raises concerns about the relevance of the projections, particularly since voter sentiments can shift rapidly in the lead-up to an election. Without knowing when the data was collected, it’s difficult to determine if the projections are still valid or if they have been overtaken by more recent events.

It's perplexing that any media outlet would disseminate such information without subjecting it to rigorous scrutiny and credibility checks. The absence of these critical details renders the report potentially misleading, making it unreliable as a tool for guiding political strategy or informing public opinion ahead of Ghana’s 2024 elections.

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DOWNLOAD PDF: [919202411113-i41p266ffa-ghanas-2024-elections--a-preview-1.pdf]

Isaac Ofori
Isaac Ofori, © 2024

Human Rights Advocate || BA, MA, MPhil, PhD Student (UEW, SCMS)Column: Isaac Ofori

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