On the Fitch report: The NDC must work harder

It is a known fact that opinion polls play a central role in contemporary political campaigns. It provides updates on the performances of political parties which receive significant attention from all stakeholders and often serve as the baseline for political commentary on the weeks leading to date of the election. Knowing about the positions of the electorate can shape the behaviour of voters (Duffy and Tavits, 2008; Forsythe et al., 1993). However, it is less clear how polling shape the strategies of party leaders on the campaign trail.

Understanding how parties respond to opinion polls is relevant for several reasons. The quantification of public opinion has often been criticized for its effects on the perceptions of voters (Ginsberg, 1986; Herbst, 1993), and the emphasis attached to popularity rather than policy issues (Bartels, 1988; Patterson, 2005).

The recent report released by Research and data firm, Fitch Solutions, which says the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) will be defeated by the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the December 7 general elections should not be a basis for relaxation and complacency on the part of the NDC.

Polling results also offer the opportunity for parties to refine their campaign strategies. In the long-run, parties shift their issue positions in response to public opinion signals, the NDC should therefore re-strategize in response to this poll.

The London-based firm which has been consistent with its forecast since last year argues that 54 per cent of respondents surveyed tipped NDC's candidate former president John Dramani Mahama as the winner in the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

There are no doubts that, majority of Ghanaians are extremely disappointed in the Akufo-Addo Bawumia-government due to the current hardships that have engulfed the masses. Prices of goods and services skyrocketing on daily basis, businesses are collapsing; foreign companies are folding and leaving the shores of the country at an unprecedented rate.

Speaking on the Mid-Year Review for Sub Saharan Africa, Mike Kruiniger who is an Associate Director, Country Risk at Fitch Solutions explained that the current state of the economy will play a significant role in the choice of voters on December 7.

"We believe that the opposition NDC has a stronger chance of winning the upcoming general elections compared to the ruling NPP. Recent polls consistently place the NDC ahead with the most recent survey showing 54 % of respondents favouring the NDC.

"In addition, multiple surveys have shown that economic management and job creation are going to be the most important issues during the election for voters which we believe will put the ruling NPP at a disadvantage given the economic challenges that the country has faced over the last couple of years”, he added.

Whiles this may sound good to the ears of the NDC and its sympathisers, the party and its executives should rather use the survey as a springboard to work extra hard in order to organise its base, and mobilise its supporters and sympathiser to get out and vote on the election date.

There is the danger of some supporters relaxing with the view that the NDC has already won the election and decide not to get out and cast their votes on the Election Day. This threat must be addressed by the national executives; the message must be clear and concise.

Complacency must be cast out of all the executives from the branch levels up to the national level. This is the time to collaborate and work harder in order to make the victory incontestable.