Election 2024: Fitch Solutions predicts victory for NDC

Research and data firm Fitch Solutions says the main opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) will floor the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) in the upcoming December 7 general elections.

The London-based firm has consistently predicted this outcome since last year, with a recent survey showing 54 percent of respondents favoring NDC candidate John Mahama as the winner.

Mike Kruiniger, Associate Director of Country Risk at Fitch Solutions, discussed the findings during the Mid-Year Review for Sub-Saharan Africa.

He emphasized that current economic challenges will significantly influence voters' decisions on December 7.

“We believe that the opposition NDC has a stronger chance of winning the upcoming general elections compared to the ruling NPP. Recent polls consistently place the NDC ahead, with the most recent survey showing 54% of respondents favoring the NDC,” Mr. Kruiniger stated.

He pointed out that economic management and job creation are key issues for voters, which could disadvantage the ruling NPP.

“Multiple surveys have shown that economic management and job creation are going to be the most important issues during the election for voters, which we believe will put the ruling NPP at a disadvantage given the economic challenges that the country has faced over the last couple of years,” he explained.

Despite a likely NDC victory, Kruiniger noted that the policy direction of the country is not expected to change significantly.

He predicted that a Mahama-led administration would continue with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program initiated by the Akufo-Addo-Bawumia government.

“In terms of what a government change will mean for the economy, we think that policy direction under a likely NDC government will not largely change.

“The NDC will most likely stick to Ghana's IMF program, particularly as the party has shown commitment in the past to international agreements and obligations."

He added: “We expect policy continuation in Ghana despite a likely government change.”