Pakistan's Political Crisis: What Is The Plausible Endgame?

The crisis of governance is not a new phenomenon in Pakistan. It has been going on since its independence from British rule in 1947. From the 1940s to the 1950s, a lot of countries gained independence from their colonial powers, and these newly emancipated countries adopted either democratic or authoritarian systems of government. But Pakistan has been an exception. It embraced a hybrid system of government, implying the presence of both democracy and autocracy at the same time. Apart from direct military rule in different periods of time in Pakistan, when democratically elected governments started to govern the country, it was again the military establishment behind the screen who ran the government by nakedly interfering with the dispensation of civil government. Even today, after seven decades of independence, exactly the same ugly system of governance goes on.

Pakistan in 2023 is not just facing dangerous political instability threatening its sovereign and independent status but also deep economic problems that have brought unending economic hardship and misery to a vast number of ordinary people across the country. These people are struggling hard to feed themselves and somehow survive in the midst of distressing economic and political conditions. Internally, the people of Pakistan are enduring oppressive inflation, rising unemployment, increasing shortages of necessities of life, low national output, poor performance in foreign trade, low domestic and foreign investment, foreign exchange turmoil, a substantial international debt burden with an increased possibility of being a defaulting nation in international debt servicing, etc. These adverse economic conditions have been further exacerbated by the devastating floods that engulfed one-third of Pakistan's territory in recent times. So, bringing the economy back on track as early as possible is the immediate challenge for the political and military leadership of Pakistan.

Against the backdrop of this development, the country has plunged into a deep political crisis, as the incumbent coalition government of Shehbaz Sharif, backed by the army establishment, arrested the outgoing prime minister, Imran Khan, from the courthouse. Following the arrest of Imran Khan, people took to the streets in large numbers to voice their pent-up frustration against the government's decision. However, the ongoing protest took an ugly turn as the angry mob not only resorted to destructive behaviour but also invaded the army headquarters and complexes in different cities, expressing their enormous dissatisfaction against the army's interference in a democratic dispensation.

But the military establishment led by Army Chief, General Asif Munir considers the mob attack on May 9, 2023, against army institutions as a deliberate attempt by Imran Khan and his PTI party to degrade Pakistan's army in the eyes of the countrymen. It has provided the establishment with an opportunity to hit back and take on Imran Khan and his PTI supporters with full force. Khan and his party activists have now incurred the wrath of the army quarter led by General Asif Munir. Following this pretext, the establishment has been carrying out a wholesale combing operation against the PTI supporters, particularly the senior and dedicated members of the party. They are thrown behind bars in large numbers but are again released on the condition that they cut off their political links with Imran Khan. In fact, the massive crackdown on Imran Khan's party by the establishment is designed to terrorize PTI activists and weaken Imran Khan from within.

So what awaits Pakistan in the coming days? Will political stability return to Pakistan? What could be the endgame of this suffocating political state in Pakistan? There are several possibilities as to how the current political conditions can play out. As things now stand, the establishment has two hard choices: to hold national elections or impose martial law throughout Pakistan. However, some analysts dismiss the possibility of martial law being imposed by the army. This is because the present economic crisis will discourage them from doing it. After taking over power, they will have to deliver on the economic front: tackle the ongoing economic problem, improve the economic conditions of the common people, and also improve Pakistan's international standing as a politically and economically viable and stable nation. Above all, they have to get international recognition as the rightful organ to run the country. All these matters may discourage them from replacing the civil government for the time being.

However, if they decide to hold a national election either at the scheduled time in October 2023 or at the delayed time, they have to implement their grand scheme: 'The Minus Imran Khan Formula." This means PTI as a party should cease to exist and face a complete ban. Imran Khan must be sent to jail for a lengthy period of time. They think this will pave the way for their chosen party and the people to win the national and provincial elections. Reports have it that the Minus Imran Khan formula has already been conceived, and accordingly, they are working seriously to form an alternative party composed of the forced defectors from PTI.

The military establishment led by General Asif Munir is ignoring the stark truth that blocking the way for Imran Khan and his party to come to power through a normal electoral process is a dangerous move given the huge popularity of Imran Khan. It is just like facing a wildfire that will fast engulf the entire country and destroy everything. So, any foul play by Shehbaz Sharif's government and its loyalists to influence the electoral process in the wrong manner will not be easy to execute. For them, the electoral road has already been quite thorny.

Shehbaz Sharif's government and their loyal generals may have overlooked the fact that Imran Khan's strength depends not just on huge public support; he and his PTI party have the support of an impartial and courageous judiciary, a hefty section of the Pakistan army (the generals down the rank and file), the civil society, local and international press and media, governments of other countries across the world, and finally superpowers according to their geopolitical interests, etc. So, the Minus Imran Khan formula may have other unpleasant ramifications if these stakeholders take a strong stand against any foul play with the electoral process by the establishment. For example, a mass upsurge against the incumbent government might take place and force them to come up with acceptable policies, a vital Supreme Court ruling might go against the incumbent government, making it difficult to execute their ill-conceived plan against the democratic process; a military coup against the incumbent government cannot be ruled out and can change all the equation for the ruling establishment, etc.

All said and done, what about superpower rivalries and their geopolitical interests with reference to Pakistan? Both America and China have high stakes in Pakistan's ongoing eco-political crisis. Both superpowers have serious geopolitical agendas involving Pakistan, on which huge crosscurrents are going on. Both superpowers are trying to enhance their power and influence over Pakistan. This can again produce some extreme incidents in Pakistan according to their blueprint, such as orchestrating a military coup, the elimination of front-line leaders in civil and military quarters, triggering border incursions or even war with neighboring countries to divert attention from domestic unrest, regional powers might be provoked to take their own actions in line with their national interest ; centrifugal forces might be encouraged to disintegrate the country, Jihadists or religious extremist groups might take advantage of domestic political unrest, etc.

Both the civil and military leadership lack the sagacity to navigate the ongoing eco-political crisis. Unless the politicians show their wisdom, mutual respect and tolerance for each other, and a real commitment to building proper democratic institutions and cultures, undesirable military interference cannot be prevented. At the present set-up and arrangements, it is too much to expect responsible behaviour and action from Pakistani politicians and military bureaucrats because of their highly politicized stance and a deep obsession with their own interests. Therefore, much-expected political and social stability and consistent economic progress and development in Pakistan might remain a distant dream.

However, we cannot dismiss some positive outcomes resulting from the prolonged political crisis. If the dust settles down and Pakistan is run by politicians in a responsible manner, the military establishment might prefer to concentrate primarily on their professional development. The attack on the army establishment by the angry mob on May 09, 2023, has exposed the anti-democratic role of the Pakistani army, besides bringing the confrontation between the people and the army to the forefront. Perhaps the Pakistani army establishment will have learnt a bitter lesson from the ongoing political crisis: No more naked interference in the proceedings of a democratically elected government. It is pertinent to protect the country from internal and external aggressions but only within the constitutionally mandated framework.

Written by: M.ASHIQ
Dhaka University Graduate in Economics
Ex-teacher, SCHOLASTICA AND SUNBEAMS,
Dhaka, Bangladesh
(A freelance writer on global politics and diplomacy.)