Iran could make old foes Netanyahu and Erdogan the best of friends

The return to power of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is raising questions over the future of Turkish-Israeli rapprochement, given the tempestuous relations between Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to date.

Netanyahu's election victory – which swept him back to power as prime minister again – comes as Turkish-Israeli relations are warming.

During Netanyahu's previous rule, he and Erdogan routinely exchanged insults.

"I think there is an issue in this history between these two leaders, yes," warned Gallia Lindenstrauss, an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies, a research organization in Tel Aviv. 

"There were rhetorical battles between them," Lindenstrauss added. "Especially after the previous normalization attempt in 2018 reached a crisis point. But both leaders are very pragmatic. They both have been in power for a long time and now this pragmatism will assist them."

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Congratulations

Erdogan was quick to call Netanyahu to congratulate him on his election victory in a conversation both sides said was cordial.

Mesut Casin, a presidential adviser at Istanbul's Yeditepe University, says Iran provides common ground, with Erdogan sharing Netanyahu's concerns over growing Iranian regional influence and Tehran's nuclear energy programme. 

"There has been a big transformation in relations between Turkey and Israel relations," added Casin. "This is beneficial for two sides.

"Israel has a big headache with Iran. Especially Netanyahu who is very suspicious of Iranian nuclear weapons. According to Netanyahu, they are almost ready to have nuclear forces. Also, this is against the Turkish vital interest. This will be a collapse of the balance of power in the Middle East," said Casin. 

With Netanyahu relying on the support of political parties that some analysts describe as having hardline policies toward the Palestinians, a potential flashpoint remains.

"There is, of course, the shadow of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I think we cannot ignore it," cautioned Lindenstauss. 

"Any serious deterioration on the Israeli-Palestinian front will also affect Turkish public opinion and will also affect Erdogan and his statements towards Israel.

"And we should be cautious because this is an issue that is a point of contention between the two countries," added Lindenstrauss.

Ankara's 'change of priorities'

Tuesday's visit by Israeli's National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, accompanied by a large security detail to Jerusalem's Temple Mount, one of Islam's holiest sites, drew widespread condemnation across the Muslim world. 

The Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, in a telephone conversation with his Israeli counterpart, Eli Cohen, condemned the visit.

But Erdogan, who in the past rarely missed an opportunity to attack Israel for similar actions, remained silent on the incident.

Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution in Washington suggests Ankara's priorities may have changed.  

"The Palestinian issue is very much on the back burner in terms of the Turkish discussion. over the past few years.

"Over the past few years, various flare-ups on the Israeli-Palestinian front have barely made it to the news in Turkey.

"Traditionally, the Palestinian issue had been a litmus test for the relationship between Turkey and Israel. But I think now times are different. Turkey feels it needs Israel's support, that it has developed a strategic relationship with Israel.

"The truth is, the Palestinian issue is no longer as critical or important or consequential for the leadership of the Turkish government at the moment."

Regional power play

Erdogan's rapprochement with Israel is part of a broader policy of improving ties in the region.

Analysts point out that many of those country's leaders were uncomfortable with Erdogan's strong backing of the Palestinian cause. For now, Ankara's priorities appear to be focusing on cooperation with Israel from energy to defence.

"Turkey is, again, how can I say, eager to establish military cooperation together with Israel," said Casin.

"I worked with Israel in the military service. We made very good agreements between Turkey and Israel."