Republican Party Favorites To Win US 2022 Midterm Elections

Kudus Research and Advocacy Center a Ghanaian based organization would like to share an insight of the upcoming midterm’s elections of the United State

The 2022 United States elections will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. During this midterm election year, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be contested. Thirty-nine state and territorial gubernatorial and numerous other state and local elections will also be contested. This will be the first election affected by the redistricting that will follow the 2020 census

Our study seeks to look into the chances of the Republican Party and the Democratic Party taken into consideration was the two party’s chances using their approval ratings, head to head of party in previous elections frontrunners and generic polls.

The Democrats’ majority in Congress is razor-thin: The Senate is a 50-50 split and Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s control of the House rests on a slim margin of which the Democratic Party holds majority of about 220 seats and the Republican Party 210 seats with 5 vacant. In 2022, all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are on the ballot. Additionally, 36 out of 50 states will elect governors.

All 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives will be up for election of which a party needs about 218+ seats to win simple majority to control the House, the House elections are always held in every two years, as of August 2022 the Democratic party holds majority of about 220 seats and the Republican Party 210 seats with 5 vacant. The Republican Party needs a net gain of just 5 seats in these elections to win the House of Representatives and the Democrats needs to either maintain all its seats without lost or gain more seats to maintain their slim majority in the House of Representatives historically since 1992 most incumbent party always lost the House of representatives elections during the midterm elections and Democratic Party is no exception making the Republican Party going to the elections with a hope of winning the House control back they lost in 2018. According to Ballotpedia it has identified 36 of the 435 House races (3.2%) as battlegrounds. Of the 14 seats, 10 have Democratic incumbents and three have Republican incumbents. The other, Colorado's 8th Congressional District, is a new district created as a result of redistricting making the Republican Party a clear favourite with regards to possibility of gaining more seat in these upcoming elections. In the past three decades, both parties have suffered major midterm losses in the House two years after capturing the White House. Democrats lost 54 House seats under Bill Clinton in 1994 and 63 seats under Barack Obama in 2010. Republicans lost 42 seats under Donald Trump in 2018.One recent exception to the pattern of the president’s party losing House seats in a first-term midterm came in 2002, when George W. Bush used the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, to rally voters around the theme of terrorism and help his Republican Party gain seats of which currently not the case of Biden administration hence the Democrats Party making the Republicans the clear favorite to win the House back based on these historic facts.

At least 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be up for election, the senate elections usually held in every even years of six terms of which 1/3 of the seats of 100 would be up for reelection. In these elections they are about 35 seats up of which a party needs at least 50 seats to control the senate currently the Republican Party have about 50 seats Democrats Party 48 with two independence who caucus with Democrats making it 50 seats for the two political party divisions in the upper chamber.

The Senate race in terms of seats vulnerability suggests that 2022 could be a tough year for Republicans. They must defend 21 of the 35 seats up this November. Two of those races are in states President Donald Trump lost in 2020: Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Democrats, meanwhile, only have 14 incumbents to defend, all in states that President Biden won but the Senate could be determined in four states where Democratic incumbents are up for re-election base on varying reasons: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. But importantly concerns about inflation and Biden’s dwindling job approval ratings have made the Republicans believe going into these elections with the hope they can win in some states that otherwise would lean the Democrats’ way. Republicans need to net just one new seat this year to reclaim control of the upper chamber. Still, Democrats are more optimistic about their chances of holding their Senate majority than they are their House majority, and are eyeing several opportunities to flip GOP-held seats making this year senate elections close to call for both parties have equal chances of taken majority. Another thing we took into consideration was that of senate seats up for re-election of which different party governor is in place, In 11 states with Senate seats up for election in 2022, the seat is held by a senator of a different party than the governor. Six seats held by Republican senators in states with Democratic governors are up. Five seats held by Democratic senators in states with Republican governors are up making the Republican Party more vulnerable in a case of election malpractice fraud or certifications for the state governor have much powers in that regards depending of the state laws. States with senators from different party’s seven states have senators from different parties in the 117th Congress: Maine, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Four of those seven states have Senate seats up for election in 2022. Vermont has one Democratic senator and one independent senator who caucuses with Democrats, so three states with seats up for election have senators in different caucuses: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin another point base that can decide faith of the US senate elections

Predicting shifts in Senate seats is more difficult, in part because only one-third of seats are up for grabs each election year, and therefore political geography is a factor in the results. There have been some years when the president’s party loses big in the House but not the Senate. In 2018, for example, Republicans gained a Senate seat despite losing control of the House because many of the competitive Senate races were in red states.

Several factors are at play here. One is candidate quality. In 2010, Republicans lost Senate elections in states they might have won because their candidates weren’t ready for prime time. Democrats could hold the Senate this year in part because they are defending fewer seats. Of the 35 seats up for reelection this year, 14 are held by Democrats, none in states Trump carried in 2020. Republicans will be defending 21 seats, including in two states (Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) won by Biden.

In recent years, something else has come into play in Senate races. The party that wins the presidential vote in a state almost always now wins Senate races. In 2016, there was no deviation from that pattern. In 2020, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) won her reelection bid as Biden was winning the state’s popular vote, making her a rarity.

Historically congressional Elections from 1994: Republicans swept to power in the House and Senate in an historic victory that ended four decades of Democratic control of the House and ushered in a new breed of GOP legislators led by Speaker Newt Gingrich.

2006: Democrats took control of the House and Senate as rising disillusionment with the war in Iraq and dissatisfaction with the leadership of President George W. Bush combined to hand Republicans major losses. Bush said Democrats delivered “a thumping” to the GOP.

2010: After his historic victory in the 2008 election, President Barack Obama and the Democrats suffered a major setback in 2010, ceding control of the House to the Republicans in a campaign fueled by tea party anger toward Washington. Obama called the results a “shellacking.”

2014: Republicans completed their takeover of Congress by capturing control of the Senate and adding seats to their House majority. Democrats suffered substantial losses at all levels of government during the Obama presidency.

2018: Revulsion against President Donald Trump, fueled by an army of female voters across the country, brought Democrats to power in the House and sent a historic number of female legislators to Congress

Another factor Kudus Research and Advocacy Centre took into consideration was that of the redistricting that was emanated from the 2020 census through redistricting and the geographic sorting of the population, there are fewer competitive swing districts. The Cook Report with Amy Walter notes that after the 1996 election, there were 164 competitive districts, defined by the margin of victory in the previous election. The number of competitive districts fell steadily and hit a low of 72 after 2016, but then ticked up to 78 after the 2020 election still far below earlier times. A related factor that could hold down Republican gains is that there are fewer districts where voters split their tickets. In 2020, there were just 16 congressional districts where the House winner and the presidential winner were from different parties the lowest in more than half a century and perhaps much longer. Nine were Biden-won districts held by a Republican, seven were Trump-won districts held by a Democrat. Because of redistricting, there are 12 Trump districts held by Democrats and 11 districts Biden won that are held by Republicans.

Despite these caveats, an election-year tsunami could deliver major Republicans gains in the House.

Elections will be held for the governorships of 36 states and 3 territories. Republicans are defending 20 seats, and Democrats are defending 16. A handful of governors were on the ballot in 2019, 2020 and 2021, but the bulk of the nation’s chief executives get elected in midterm years. As such, 36 states are hosting gubernatorial elections in 2022; Republicans are defending 20 seats, and Democrats are defending 16. However, even though Democrats flipped seven governorships in the 2018 midterms, this is likely to be a better cycle for Republicans: The political winds are at their backs, and Democrats are defending more governorships in red or purple states than Republicans are in blue or purple ones making the Republicans favourite to win the this coming midterms.

In fact, with policymaking in Washington at a standstill, state-level elections may well have the bigger impact on Americans’ daily lives. And the biggest prize on the state level, of course, is the governor’s office. Though governors have always been important for their influence on health care, education, tax policy and more, the 2022 gubernatorial elections feel particularly urgent. Governors have the ability to block or sign off on election law changes and election-subversion efforts ahead of the 2024 presidential election, and they are also usually the ones making life-or-death decisions about COVID-19 policy in their states.

The most closely watched indicator in a midterm election year is generally the president’s approval rating. The state of the economy is also important, though the direction of the unemployment rate up or down can count for more politically than the exact number. This year, inflation concerns have trumped the low jobless levels as an issue of concern. Assessments of presidential job performance are not a perfect predictor of the size of House losses or gains and are even less reliable in Senate races. But a rough rule of thumb holds that the further a president’s approval rating is below 50 percent, the worse the president’s party will do.

President Biden’s approval rating average is in the low 40s, pointing to serious losses. Democrats hope his numbers will improve, but presidents almost never see their approval ratings rise appreciably between the beginning of a midterm election year and the November balloting. As compare to former president Donald J Trump whose approval ratings stands at an average of 55% which is far better than President Biden

We also took into consideration the two party’s frontrunners using the 2020 general elections for Democrats was represented by Joe Biden and Republicans Donald J Trump who lost his second term bid to now president Joe Biden meaning the American voters rejected Donald Trump infavor of Joe Biden that gives the Democrats an advantage but in US general elections and midterms dynamics are completely different, with regards to approval ratings of which is more significant in US midterms former president Donald J Trump is ahead of president Joe Biden taken into consideration these approval ratings according to ballotpedia Joe Biden rating is at 39% as of August 1,according to Reuters/Ipsos Biden approval ratings is at 38% as of August 20, also according to Gallup Biden approval ratings is at 38% as of August. According to Gallup Biden job approval ratings for the sixth quarter in office spanning April 20 through July 19 averaged of 40%, no president elected to his first term has had a lower sixth quarter average than Biden although Jimmy Carter and Donald Trump ratings were only slightly better at 42%, Barack Obama Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan also averaged below majority approvals. Our interest was that of Biden and Trumps, their rating suggest that Trumps 42% job approval ratings to that of Biden 40% in the same period could be a big game changer for Republican with his involvements.

History suggest it would be unlikely for Biden approval ratings to improve during the seventh quarter, to date only one elected president George H.W Bush has seen meaningful improvements in his 7^th quarter approval ratings, which was emanated from Bush strong stands and condemnation of Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait which reflected a rally support for him in midterm that saw the Republican party gaining more seats in Congress. These historic facts gives the Republican Party a big advantage coupled with the number of campaign rallies Trump held candidates he endorsed and they won big in the Republican party as compared to Joe Biden who was infected with Covid and busy with national assignments when Trump was on the campaign trail with GOP candidates endorsements win of about 93%. (NB; we used Gallup approval ratings as our major reference because George Gallup was an American pioneer of survey sampling techniques known as generic polls in the 1930s a successful statistical method of measuring public opinion and inventor of Gallup poll)

Alan Abramowitz of Emory University argues that a better indicator of the size of House losses for the party holding the White House is what is known as the generic ballot. That indicator suggests Republicans will gain more than the five seats needed to take control but perhaps not as many as some of the recent blowouts: 1994, 2010 or 2018

Finally we took into consideration the most recent generics polls that seek to complement our efforts to establishment the party that have the high chances of winning the midterms elections we took into consideration these generics polls that was conducted by FiveThirtyEight generic polls on July 15, Republicans enjoyed 44.7% and Democrats 42.9% also August 15, Democrats with 43.9% as compare to Republicans 43.4% support for control of congress that’s pointing to Republican win, also according to Rasmussen 46% will vote for Republican candidate as compare to 41% as of August 19 and also a week early the GOP led higher with 46% to 43% of Democrats but generally Rasmussen generics shows that Republicans have led the generic congressional ballot all year.

With the above we came to conclusion at 95% confidence level that the Republican Party are the clear favorite to win the House of representatives and the Gubernatorial elections but with the Senate have equal chances with the Democratic Party in winning (republicans 50% -- democrats 50%). Democrats slightly ahead in the senate race in a way but generally Republicans are clear favorite to win back congressional majority. Kudus Research and Advocacy Center we anticipates but the American voters are the best judges

Sign by:

Yussif Abdul Kudus

Founder & Executive director

Kudus Research Advocacy Center

+233(0)245535151

[email protected]