Desert Inn: the lost war

This week the UN General Secretary is going to meet with the leaders Erdogan of Turkey, Putin of Russia, and Selensky of Ukraine to stop the war in Ukraine. Ministers Blinken and Austin of the USA arrive in Ramstein near Frankfurt am Main to discuss further steps to stop the Russian offense.

The war most likely is not going to end soon but possibly last for years. The scenario of the future must be discussed on many levels in the opposing nations. Ukraine might push the Russians out of their territory maybe Russia will win a corridor along the Black Sea with access to Crimea and a port as a strategic basis for further advances toward Moldova and beyond.

The winner takes it all so the financial burden of rebuilding destroyed infrastructure is a vital aspect of the war in the first place. Very costly. To repay the much-needed investment taxpayers have to foot the bill. Taxpayers back home heavily affected by sanctions for years to come and the isolation of much-needed trade will not be able to find the funds necessary. The burden will be tried to put on the shoulders of the Ukrainians.

In history occupying opposing people was only sustainable for a foreseeable future when besides human capital natural resources or trading opportunities were available none of which exists in the corridor. A KGB agent turning President is a blueprint for the hunger for power but never a foundation of intellectual achievement to see beyond the possibilities of today in the book of history.

When the corridor eventually is agreed upon only simple workers with fewer opportunities will remain in the corridor while a highly qualified and intellectual workforce will be absorbed gladly by the Western world. The elite abroad in foreign lands thinking about how to take their nation back will make the people remaining in the corridor even suffer more while the West will be strengthened. The low qualified workforce left behind will not work for the occupying force with happiness reducing the productivity of the corridor and ability to finance the destroyed corridor.

For a long time, the corridor will be a financial disaster for Russia. The rising of separatists groups in the fragile society of the corridor is the most likely scenario. To make an "investment" pay off the fundamentals must be right so the willingness of the locals to fully cooperate with the occupying forces. If this can not be achieved in time workforce from the mainland needs to be sent which causes further internal opposition and rejection.

In the years before the war, Vladimir Putin had saved funds and increased the military arsenal while forgetting to address the future of Ukraine under the feet of the Russians. His hunger for historic greatness made him forget the complexity of the war and its reactions from the West. As he will not live forever but is already old most likely his war and consequences are short-lived.

His successor can only prove himself as a great leader when he stands against Vladimir Putin otherwise he will not be great but an ordinary follower.