Can Ghana Win The 2017 Africa Cup of Nations?

Ghana has been one of the most successful African sides in the World Cup the past decade (three appearances including a trip to the 2010 quarterfinals). However, the Black Stars have had a tough time translating that success over to their continent’s most prestigious competition, the Africa Cup of Nations. While their performances haven’t been poor by any means, finishing runner-up twice, third once, and fourth place twice since 2008 certainly whets the appetite of a nation that won the competition four times from 1963-1982 but hasn’t a single time since.

However, the 2017 AFCON (hosted in Gabon) is now less than a year away and hope springs eternal in the West African nation. It’s anyone’s guess as to if it will be a traditional African power (like Egypt or Cameroon) or a surprise winner (like Zambia in 2012) that will be declared champion of the continent. This unpredictability, along with all the familiar faces that play in many of the world’s top leagues are just two of the reasons that make the AFCON such a great event to follow for casual footy fans and hardcore punters alike.

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It’s a gambler’s fallacy to think that Ghana is ‘overdue’ to win next year’s tournament, but when you break down the Black Stars as we have below, it’s hard not to like their chances as one of the probable odds-on favorites to lift the next AFCON trophy.

Recent Form
So far in AFCON Qualifying, Ghana has been capitalizing on their easy group of Rwanda, Mozambique, and Mauritius who are ranked 87, 101, and 154 respectively in the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Rankings. Through the first four matches, Ghana sits on top of Group H with ten points and a GD of +9 (largely in part thanks to a 7-1 thrashing of Mauritius in the opening match).

Barring a complete qualification catastrophe, Ghana looks safe to win the group given their four-point lead heading into their final two group play matches at Mauritius on June 5th and against Rwanda on September 2nd.

The Squad
It will be up in the air as to who makes the final squad selection, however it seems to be pretty certain that next January there will be a good mix of veterans and young stars donning the Ghanaian kit. Of those that have been called up to the national team in the past 12 months, none of them have more caps (95) or goals (48) than captainAsamoahGyan, who will almost certainly be leading the squad in Gabon. Malaga’s Christian Atsu and Aston Villa’s Jordan Ayew will likely be the other key members of the Black Stars strikeforce.

The back line will look to be an experienced one as Harrison Afful, Jonathan Mensah, and John Boye are no strangers to the international stage with 166 caps between them. Spanish second division keeper BrimahRazak will likely take the net for the second straight AFCON tournament, and the midfield will likely be the most inexperienced unit but will be built around 25-year olds Wakaso Mubarak and Emmanuel Agyemang-Badu (108 caps and 22 goals combined). Thus far in AFCON qualifying, the scoring has been distributed around evenly with Ayew netting three goals, Gyan two, and six other players contributing one.

The Boss
On the touchline will remain boss Avram Grant that led Ghana to the final of 2015’s AFCON. Grant of course is no stranger to managerial success before current his position in Africa, having led multiple Israeli sides to domestic league and cup titles as well as guiding Partizan Belgrade to the Serbian SuperLiga championship before taking his current position. Grant has also managed some of the biggest superstars in the world during his time at Chelsea in the English Premier League.

The Competition and Ghana’s Odds
Odds in a competition like AFCON are largely dependent upon how the draw plays out, however while most of the usual suspects ( Ivory Coast , Cameroon, Algeria, Senegal, Egypt, Morocco) appear to be on their way to winning their respective groups, talented footballing nations Nigeria and South Africa have already been eliminated or appear to be heading that way, thinning out the field of perceived title threats considerably.

While it’s too early for betting odds to be released on who will lift the trophy next January, with a favorable draw (perhaps into Group A with host and automatically-qualified #88 Gabon) and some cohesive team performances, there’s no reason to believe Ghana can’t win their fifth Cup of Nations the next time out.