IN-DEPTH: Team-by-team analysis of Ghana's league title race

With four games to finish the First Capital Plus Premier League season, the Joy Sports team has been going in hard on the permutations at the bottom of the league log. Now, Gary Al-Smith and Kweku Arhin focus on the title race

Flash back to last season.
Asante Kotoko’s 2-1 victory over New Edubiase in Bekwai all but confirmed the Kumasi giants' 23rd league title. And that was with two games to spare. The Porcupine Warriors triumph was an open secret, as has been BA United’s relegation this term, which was confirmed last Sunday.

It was only a matter of time.
This season also, the race for the title has been very predictable for long periods until Ashantigold’s miraculous drop in form. The Miners’ patchy form means their once unassailable seven-point lead has been cut to a single point with four difficult clashes yet to be negotiated.

Five points separate fourth-placed Inter Allies from Ashgold and a point separates second-placed Aduana from Ashgold.

To put things in perspective, fans should not concentrate solely on the relegation scrap as the race to succeed Kotoko’s throne will definitely be decided on the last day.

There is no clear-cut lead on the log despite AshantiGold’s consistent positioning at the top since match day 2, with Aduana Stars closely challenging with just a point behind the leaders (who have 45 points) while down the log, there is all to fight four in the relegation dog fight in the final four games of the season.

Looking at the last four games
AshGold
If history is anything to go by, then the Obuasi side should begin to seek divine intervention as they suffered the heart break of losing the league on the very last day to Aduana in 2009 - the same team that sit one point and one place below them.

The Miners face Medeama in Obuasi before travelling to Berekum Chelsea in what is expected to be the match of the season. It will be make or break for either side as a win will see them edge closer to the title. Ashantigold finish off at home to WAFA and away to Accra Great Olympics who desperately need the points to stay in the league.

[PHOTO]http://img.modernghana.com/images/content/
Dauda says his colleagues are going to work hard to bring triumph to Obuasi. "If God wills, we are going to win the title but it is going to be difficult. Till we finish the league, we are going to keep fighting and that is the mentality, although we know it would not be easy."

AshGold will be guided by history. Aduana Stars pipped them to the title in 2010 in similar circumstances to this season. At the time, they snatched the title from AshGold on goal difference in a dramatic last day finish.

AshGold will thus look to avoid a repeat of history

Aduana
The Dormaa side have gone about their one goal project in Dormaa in such a mean manner. The traits of their 2009 campaign are there to be seen as they've scored 22 goals all season, conceding only 19.

That title win six years ago also saw Aduana setting a then world record for the least goals scored by a league title winner with just 19 goals in 30 matches. Although they have improved on that record this time, they appear to be heading in the same direction, having scored just 22 goals and are this season’s second joint least scoring team with Liberty Professionals.

Such lean numbers for a team that is second on the table. Club CEO Anthony Commey’s men have Olympics and Edubiase to visit Dormaa.

Judging by their records, the visitors are likely to go down with or without a fight.

[PHOTO]http://img.modernghana.com/images/content/ -

Berekum Chelsea
The Blues, despite their financial troubles at the start of the season, have grown into a formidable side over the course of the campaign.

Despite going winless in their last three games, they still stand a great chance of annexing the title especially with Ashgold coming to their backyard.

The Berekum side are undefeated at home all season and no one can bet against them maintaining the record.

[PHOTO]http://img.modernghana.com/images/content/ -

Inter Allies
A surprise contender for the title is Paa Kwesi Fabin’s boys from Tema.

Inter Allies have quietly gone about their business especially in the second with an impressive stat reading: five wins, five draws, one loss and five clean sheets. In Ghana, this is championship-winning form especially considering how they've managed to pick points away from home.

Impressive, considering last season they needed an almighty last-minute scramble to get out of the drop zone, led by Herbert Addo.

And though it's obvious they aren't really interested in the title (their business model is more concerned with playing good football, not getting relegated and selling their best players), CEO Delali Senaye has said time and again that they will give everything they can for a bit of history.

And so they should. Look at their next series of games. Not the easiest!

[PHOTO]http://img.modernghana.com/images/content/ Kotoko

This may sound nuts, but there is an outside chance - and a big one at that - for the Porcupine Warriors to win the title. AshGold top with 45 points and Kotoko have 38. Assuming Kotoko won all their last remianing games (which won't be easy at all), and AshGold, Berekum Chelsea, Aduana and Allies contrived to lose, a monumental miracle will see the Kumasi side nick it.

But that's very far-fetched.
An away trip to Allies on Sunday is arduous at best, and while the next game is very likely to be a win - a home game with BA United - the following two games with Hasaacas in Essipon and Aduana in Kumasi will be daunting. Kotoko fans will best served if they don't dare to dream.

Better wait next season for a title.
[PHOTO]http://img.modernghana.com/images/content/ Jimmy's right

Wa All Stars coach Jimmy Korblah was right, you know?

He's said that this season’s FCPPL has been the most competitive contest he's witnessed.

"I started coaching at the Premier level right from the 2003/04 season with Lions. I have never seen this kind of [competitiveness] before,” he said.

"I think it is very tough and very dicey because teams come to you home, you find it difficult to win; you go to their home and they also find it difficult to win. It has been tough.

"The table speaks for itself. Right from the fourth placed team to the last but one [Hearts of Oak], any team can join the top four or drop into relegation so it is very difficult one,” coach Korblah went on.

[PHOTO]http://img.modernghana.com/images/content/ Tight all the way

This race for the title is very complicated. Any of these four teams can annex the title.

Ashgold’s advantage over Aduana should they tie on the same points will only be determined by goal difference since both teams are tied on the head-to-head.

They however have a 3-2 advantage over Inter Allies and currently lead Chelsea 1-0 on the head-to-head.

The calculators, papers and pens are out already. The league finish will surely need us working some math.

The positives we can take out of this will be how exciting it will be for us neutrals. The drama and tension in store for us will certainly highlight the competitiveness of our league - if it hasn't already.

So long as we have fairness in officiating and the other variables are made to fall where they may, it should set up a grand finale.

More features:
CLICK TO READ: Analysis - How Hearts will escape relegation

CLICK TO READ: Why Oly, Bechem will get relegated
Follow Kweku on Twitter: @nana_odum and Gary @garyalsmith. Get more updates on Facebook/Twitter with the #JoySports hashtag

Story by Ghana/Joy Sports/Gary Al-Smith & Kweku Arhin