2016 Election Favours NPP – EIU

Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) of the influential Economist magazine says President John Mahama and his National Democratic Congress (NDC) are going to lose the 2016 general elections.

The EIU also said its analysis was pointing to a victory for the opposition New Patriotic Party and its presidential candidate, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo.

In its October 2015 report, the EIU said the economic hardship in Ghana is going to be a determining factor in the elections and said there was 'little time' for President Mahama and his ruling NDC to turn the economy around before the crucial elections.

The EIU also said it was going to be a close contest between the NDC and the NPP but Nana Akufo-Addo would eventually emerge victorious.

According to the unit, the NPP will however, need to work hard to attract votes in the Central Region while maintaining internal unity and added that the politically motivated murder of the party's Upper East Regional Chairman, Adams Mahama, in May highlighted a friction in the NPP.

The report said in spite of the NPP's troubles, the party managed to show a more united front during its primaries where there was a notable shift to more youthful parliamentary candidates.

It claimed that the NDC will continue to enjoy strong support in the east and north of the country owing to historical and tribal allegiances.

Greater Accra Region, a historical swing state, will be a key battle ground according to the analysis, but said the NDC government's mishandling of recent floods and subsequent clearing of slums in the region could well cost it more votes before going ahead to predict 'varying levels of political instability.'

EIU noted that slower growth, electricity crisis (dumsor), fuel shortages, high inflation and currency depreciation would have a negative impact on living standards.

According to EIU, a growing number of protests against the NDC's management of the country should be expected, particularly, in the capital and economic hub – Accra – disrupting business operations in the process.

In the view of the unit, in extreme cases, public anger could snowball into mass action, as seen in a number of Arab countries in recent years, and closer to home, in neighbouring Burkina Faso in 2014.

By William Yaw Owusu