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16.01.2015 Feature Article

Nigeria 2015: Make Or Mar Elections

Nigeria 2015: Make Or Mar Elections
16.01.2015 LISTEN

One does not require a crystal ball to know that Nigeria's elections slated for February 2015 will be a portentous event, with the possibilities to make or break the country. In a country where the simple business of electing governors has, in the words of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, been turned into a 'do-or-die' affair, next year election has all the ingredients to set the country afire, and send it into an irretrievable abyss.

The sad thing is that while many Nigerians appear to agree with a US Intelligence Estimate that predicted doom for the country in 2015, very few of them appear to want to do anything that will avert the calamity predicted for their country.

This was the CIA prognosis: "While currently Nigeria's leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja. The most important would be a junior officer coup that could destabilize the country to the extent that open warfare breaks out in many places in a sustained manner.

"If Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West African region. Even state failure in small countries such as Liberia has the effect of destabilizing entire neighborhoods. If millions were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana, would be destabilized. Further, a failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years—if ever—and not without massive international assistance."

Nigerian political gladiators appear more interested in winning elections than in disabusing the minds of the doom-sayers. Damning the national interests, they have all they boxed themselves into their tribal and ethnic corners, from where they lob missiles at opposing camps. The overtly partisan media (most of them mouthpieces of the politicians that own them) also do their best to fan the embers of division and inflame an already polarized body polity. Every one of the country's 200+ national and ethnic groups appear to be heeding the tribal refrain: “To thy tent, o, Israel.”

Some Northern Oligarchs, who believe that the presidency is their birthright, threatened mayhem should power not be restored to one of them next year.

The president's men, from the Ijaw national group in the Delta part of the country, are not cowed. One of their leaders, Alhaji Mujaheeden Asari-Dokubo, who lead the outlawed Niger Delta Peoples Volunteer Force, (NDPVF), threatened to plunge country into chaos should anything happen to his kinsman, President Goodluck Jonathan. That is not all. To him, anything short of a victory for the president is unacceptable to him and his men. By their logic, the constitution guaranteed two terms for a president, and any attempt to truncate their man is tantamount to high perfidy, to which they will respond with robust violence. Listen to him: “The people of the Niger Delta would not accept defeat of Jonathan in a free and fair contest. The President must be allowed to rule for eight years. If it is war the North wants, we are ready for them because Jonathan must complete the mandatory constitutionally allowable two terms of eight years.

“At home, we have regrouped and we have put our people at alert. In less than one hour, the way we would strike, the world will be shocked. If anybody does anything against Jonathan, we will retaliate. What we will do will shock the whole world. We will cripple the economy of the country not only in the creeks, but also on the nation's territorial waters, no vessel will be allowed to enter Nigeria's territorial waters.

“Let them not try anything. If they abuse Jonathan, there is no problem, he is their President but anything that will affect the interest of the Ijaw people and the interest of the entire people of the Niger Delta will be resisted at any cost.”

Asari-Dokubo vowed that the defeat of Jonathan even in a free and fair election would trigger crisis. He said: “Jonathan cannot be defeated, they cannot defeat him, they don't have the right, every part of the country must have equal stake in the presidency of the country.

The enigmatic Asari-Dokubo had previously poured vituperations on the president. He once described Jonathan as a disappointment to the Ijaw people, for his perceived cowardice in taming dissidents within the ruling PDP. The bearded warlord thundered: “Jonathan is disgracing the Ijaw people and people of the South- South by negotiating with these dissidents. I am terribly annoyed by the way he is handling this issue, he is a disgrace. If he cannot withstand them he should tell us because there is no basis for negotiation. This is the time for Jonathan to act like an Ijaw man and he should stop disgracing us. I am ready and willing to help him in 2015 but there is something wrong with him (Jonathan), he has been hijacked by some people and he is not doing anything to remove them. Jonathan is not on course at all. Jonathan is destroying his presidency. For instance, he got to power majorly by the support of the social media that is the vehicle in which he was brought to power but as I am talking to you today, he has lost all his Facebook fans. He (Jonathan) is going down every day.”

With friends like this, President Jonathan hardly need any enemy.

It shows glaring institutional weakness and the level to which partisan politics is allowed to override core national interests when an individual, an ordinary citizen, can threaten the corporate existence of the state without any organ of state doing a thing about it.

The Ijaw National Congress (INC) was not as voluble as Asari-Dokumbo, and their language was much more temperate, but the INC nevertheless came out in resolute support of President Goodluck Jonathan's bid for a second term in office. Its spokesman, Mr. Victor Borubo, said its decision was based on the sterling performance of the President. He said the congress had compared Jonathan's performance with that of past presidents and came to the conclusion that he (Jonathan) deserved a re-election. He said: “Apart from the fact that President Goodluck Jonathan is a son of the Niger Delta people and we will naturally vote for him, he is the only President that has been so criticised and yet did not harass anybody or send assassins against anybody.”

Asari-Dokubo threat is not without merit. According to one estimate, post-election violence in 2011 triggered three days orgies of blood-letting in which 800 reportedly died and 65,000 people displaced, most of them in the North. There is no guarantee that such a situation will not repeat itself in 2015 on a very massive scale.

The Ijaws are not alone, though. The various tribes and national groups are also lining up behind their candidates, and they are also sharpening their swords.

The Coalition of Northern Politicians, Academics, Professionals and Businessmen, is rallying behind General Muhammadu Buhari. Dr. Junaid Mohammed, who coordinates the group, does not want to appear like a Tribal Jingoist, but he urged Northern electorates to vote for the APC candidate. To him, Nigerians now had the option to choose between the status quo or vote for a change in the country. In his words: “There are only two candidates in this (presidential) contest in 2015 – there is Goodluck Jonathan, who is incompetent, and there is Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, who is not only a former Head of State but also a complete personification of integrity. What this means is that Nigerians now have a very clear choice: If you don't like what is in this country in terms of the national economy, insecurity, corruption at all levels and decadence in government, then you have a very clear-cut choice.”

But in an apparent split in the rank of the once-monolithic North, a newly formed Northern Elders Council (NEC), headed by Tanko Yakasai, publicly endorsed Mr. Jonathan's 2015 re-election bid. In an apparent jibe at his former colleagues, Mr. Yakasai stated in a statement read on his behalf by Yusuf Mamman said: “Northern Elders Council commends and fully supports the visionary and transformational policies of President Jonathan and acknowledge the socio-economic strides of the administration in all sectors. The Council pledges its full support and commitment to work for the success of President Goodluck Jonathan and Vice President Namadi Sambo. We will work alongside all Nigerians who wish to ensure that machinations of anti-democratic forces in this country are frustrated. We reject intimidation, threat and violence. Leaders and elders must lead by example. It's unacceptable for elders to make inciting and inflammatory statement capable of breaching the peace. We say no to war-like and belligerent posture.”

There is also the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) led by Aliko Mohammed and Northern Elders Forum (NEF) led by the Elderly Yusuf Maitama Sule and firebrand Ango Abdullahi, for whom the return of political power to the North is non-negotiable.

To underline the political split in the core North and accentuate the fault-lines which would have been unthinkable few years ago, another Northern pressure group, Arewa Youth Consultative Forum (AYCF), through its president, Yerima Shettima, said it will remain neutral.

For its part, the pan-Yoruba association, Afenifere Renewal Group, said it was solidly behind whoever the APC fielded as its presidential candidate.

The group's Publicity Secretary, Mr. Kunle Famoriyo, said: “We have a soft spot for the APC as progressives, considering the work they are doing in the South-West. We can rightly say the APC is our adopted party. A majority of our members are in the party and we support our members who want to contest for public positions, majority of whom are in the APC.”

For Mr. Manasseh Watyil who coordinates the Federation of Middle Belt People, the organisation had yet to take a common stand as regards who to support in the 2015 presidential election.

Likewise, the pan-Igbo socio-cultural group, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, stated that it had not decided on which of the candidates to support. The group's National Publicity Secretary, Osita Oganah, stated that the group was only interested in good governance. He, however, added that: “I have to let you know that at the moment, our support goes to President Jonathan. Jonathan has been doing well for the Igbo. Yet, we will wait to decide who we will finally support in the 2015 presidential election.”

At the last count, 25 political parties are registered with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), but only a few of them exist outside the imagination of their founders. Although few of them have won gubernatorial elections and secured national legislative seats, these have been in those parts of the country where these parties are traditionally strong.

There is little doubt that like in the 2001 elections, next year elections is going to be a straight fight between the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the All People's Congress. They are the only parties with truly national characters and presence. Both parties are also fielding the same presidential candidate they did in the last elections.

People Democratic Party (PDP)
The People's Democratic Party (PDP) has ruled the country since Nigeria returned to civilian government in 1999,

After months of suspense, denials and high-drama, incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan confirmed his candidacy to cheering supporters on 11 November at a rally in Abuja. He said: "After seeking the face of God, and in the quiet of my family, and after listening to the clarion call of Nigerians, I have accepted to present myself to serve a second term."

Although no other candidate emerged, the PDP nevertheless went through the motion of organizing a Primary, which saw Jonathan running unopposed on 10 December.

Jonathan's investiture posed serious challenges to the party as many members opined that this was against an unwritten rule that the PDP's presidential candidacy should alternate between Muslim northerners and Christian southerners. Former president Obasanjo agreed with this view, and said that the president broke a pledge he made to him not to seek re-election. General Obasanjo should know about what he talk; he admitted that he foisted his former protégé (Goodluck Jonathan) on the nation. About a dozen aggrieved PDP MPs in the House of Representatives defected in opposition to the president's decision.

The ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) which claims to be Africa's largest political organization is a motley collection of very strange bed-fellows. After sixteen years of unbroken rule, few Nigerians will accuse the party of being an epitome of democracy, and many of them will scoff at the very idea that the PDP has any feeling for the hoi-poloi.

On its website http://www.peoplesdemocraticparty.net, the PDP boasted that it will:

• make fundamental break with past mistakes in order to realize the optimum potentials of the Country;

• build a qualitatively better society based on the principles of democracy, human rights and social justice under the rule of law;

• be committed to;
• restructuring Nigeria in the spirit of true federalism and responsible tiers of government, so as to achieve a just and equitable society;

• Resolving such fundamental issues as proper devolution of powers between the three tiers of government;

After sixteen years, Nigerians rightly wondered what the PDP has done to fundamentally break with past mistakes; what it has done to restructure the country to devolve power between the three tiers of government.

All Progressives Congress (APC)
The All Progressives Congress was formed from an alliance of four opposition parties, the Action Congress of Nigeria, the Congress for Progressive Change, the All Nigeria Peoples Party, and the All Progressives Grand Alliance.

Fierce opposition to the PDP rather than ideological or philosophical persuasions seem to be the only uniting force of the amalgam that is the APC. Even in a country where carpet-bagging has been turned into a fine art, sheer political opportunism seem to be the driving force behind the amalgamation that birthed the APC.

At the party's primaries conducted on the 12th of December, General Muhammadu Buhari defeated four other aspirants to be elected the All Progressives Congress presidential candidate.

The Candidates
Jonathan Goodluck the incumbent came from the Ijaw minority tribe of the oil-rich Delta region. A former university don, he joined politics and has been lucky ever since. He was former deputy to the Governor of oil-rich Bayelsa state when his boss was ousted in a corruption scandal, thus paving the way for the man whose local Ijaw name was Ebele (God's wish) to become governor. He was later drafted by General Olusegun Obasanjo to partner the late Yar'Adua. He became president when his boss became the first Nigerian president to die in office. He won election in 2011.

General Muhammadu Buhari, 72, was Nigeria's military leader between December 31, 1983 and August 27, 1985. Since he overthrew the government of President Shehu Shagari in the December 1983 coup, General Mohammadu Buhari has become a retired General who refused to get tired. He has become an almost serial Presidential candidate. He contested and lost the 2003, 2007 and 2011elections. Undaunted, he doggedly litigated his loss, also to no avail.

Although his 20 month reign was characterized by massive human right abuses, few will write the stern disciplinarian, with martial bearing off lightly.

On the plus side, Buhari has one or two things going for him: First, he comes from the North, a fact that still counts for a lot in Nigeria's political equation.

Having seen little transformation in the sixteen year rule of the PDP, many Nigerians also believe that Buhari is the only politicians that can help sanitise the nation's body polity. He's generally seen as an incorruptible and highly disciplined person.

On the flip side, many Nigerians still remember life under Buhari which was characterized mainly by high-handedness and application of laws retroactively. Many, especially in the South, consider him a tribal as well as a religious bigot. Many remember his draconian rule and his pro-Islamic outbursts as evidence that he lacks the character to lead a nation as diverse as Nigeria.

Many Nigerians still bear huge grudges against the former military ruler. Among them is Nobel laureate, Wole Soyinka, who, in 2011, felt so affronted by Buhari's candidature that he wrote a trenchant 10-point reasons why Nigerians should not vote for Buhari.

Soyinka railed: “The grounds on which General Buhari is being promoted as the alternative choice are not only shaky, but pitifully naive. History matters. Records are not kept simply to assist the weakness of memory, but to operate as guides to the future. Of course, we know that human beings change. What the claims of personality change or transformation impose on us is a rigorous inspection of the evidence, not wishful speculation or behind-the-scenes assurances. Public offence, crimes against a polity, must be answered in the public space, not in caucuses of bargaining. In Buhari, we have been offered no evidence of the sheerest prospect of change. Buhari – need one remind anyone - was one of the generals who treated a Commission of Enquiry, the Oputa Panel, with unconcealed disdain. Like Babangida and Abdusalami, he refused to put in appearance even though complaints that were tabled against him involved a career of gross abuses of power and blatant assault on the fundamental human rights of the Nigerian citizenry.”

This would mark the General's fourth stab at the presidency. He lost the three previous ones. First, to General Olusegun Obasanjo in the 2003 elections. He lost against Usman Yar'Adua in the 2007 elections, and was trounced by the incumbent in the last elections in 2011.

Old age and a military past are some of the arguments opponents use to run the General down.

But one of the General's supporters, Imam Imam, dismissed insinuations his man is “unelectable.” On his Tweets, Imam's language was guttersnipish: “Spare us the shit about Buhari being an ex-soldier and unelectable. The last time I checked a former soldier (Rear Admiral John Jonah) is the deputy governor in Jonathan's Bayelsa State. Besides, in those days, military didn't rule alone. If you want to castigate soldier-rulers, also kick their civilian partners. If you are in PDP, tell my Oga David Mark not to contest election because you don't want former soldiers in power. If still in PDP and you don't want ex-soldiers in government, please tell the President's Chief of Staff, Gen. Arogbofa, to quit his job. If you are still tired of soldiers in government, and you are in PDP, why not write a letter to the National Security Adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki (retd) and Gen. Aliyu Gusau (Defence Minister), telling them you are tired of having them around?”

The real issues
Elections in Nigeria are hardly issue-based. Tribal, religious and ethnic jingoism are substituted for robust debates on issues. Few Nigerians bother with facts and figures about the realities of their lives.

There is no doubt that the president is less popular now than when sympathetic Nigerians rallied to his underdog cause and elected him in 2011. The lackluster performance of the government against a resurgent Boko Haram insurgency in the North Eastern part of the country; failure to transform the economy and pervasive corruption are issues that have turned many Nigerians against their president.

Economy in Doldrums
It is sad that for over fifty years, Nigeria's has remain a mono-crop economy. Years of high-falutin pronouncements by several governments have not seen Africa's largest oil-producer diversify its economy.

A sharp drop in the price of oil has seen the economy nose-diving, with the currency losing value. It is not a question of if, but when punishing austerity measures are imposed to balance budget that still rely on oil for about three quarters of revenue. Analysts believe that the government will stay the imposition until after the elections.

Endemic corruption and lack of political will to confront it.

Also, despite official pronunciations, Nigeria continue to be menaced by endemic corruption. The former Governor of the Central Bank, now Emir of Kano, Alhaji Sanusi told a stunned nation that twenty billion dollars of oil revenues was missing. For is effrontery, the president relieved him of his post. It recently emerged that 1US$billion was surreptitiously withdrawn from the Excess Crude Oil Account, set aside for rainy day. Finance Minister Okojo-Iweala explained that it was used to pay a debt. People asked who authorized it.

The president acknowledge the problem when he told his compatriots: "Corruption is one of the major stains in our country." As is the ritual, he promised to prosecute corrupt officials. Nigerians are not holding their breath on his promise.

The Menace of Boko Haram
Nigeria spent quite a large chunk of its budget on security and defence. State governors get a juicy, nebulously-titled 'Security Vote' allocated to them. On paper, the country has one of the best armies in Africa. Nigerian troops have helped restored peace in Liberia and Sierra Leone, and the country has won kudos for the performance of her troops serving with UN Peace Missions.

Nigerians rightfully asked why the same troops have been unable to stamp out the Boko Haram militants. They also asked why Nigerian troops shed uniforms and fled before the enemies and seek refuge in Cameroon? Troops complain that they are ill-equipped to fight a better-armed and better-motivated insurgents. Matters was brought to head in mid-December when 54 soldiers were sentenced to death by a military court-martial. Their outraged lawyer, Femi Falana, lambasted the sentence and claimed that top brass sough scape-goats for their inefficiency and corruption.

Because the factors connected with elections in Nigeria are so imponderable, few are fool-hardy enough to hedge bet on winners. Whoever emerge triumphant face a monumental task of uniting a fractious country in an undeclared war against itself, and against a faceless but brutal Islamic militants.

Plug for Femi Akomolafe
Femi Akomolafe is a Freelance writer, Film & Video Documentary Producer, IT Consultant and Web-Designer.

His highly-acclaimed books (Africa: Destroyed by the gods,” and “Africa: It shall be well,” are now available for sales at the following bookshops/offices:

1. Freedom Bookshop, near Apollo Theatre, Accra.
2. The Daily Dispatch Office, Labone - Accra
3. WEB Dubois Pan-African Centre, Accra
4. Ghana Writers Association office, PAWA House, Roman Ridge, Accra.

They are also available on the internet. Here are useful links:

1. Africa: it shall be well: http://alaye.biz/africa-it-shall-be-well-introduction-in-pdf/

Africa: it shall be well is available for sale on Kindle books at this link: https://www.createspace.com/4820404

A FREE Chapter of 'Africa: It shall be well' could be downloaded here: http://alaye.biz/africa-it-shall-be-well-a-free-chapter/

2. Africa: Destroyed by the gods (How religiosity destroyed Africa) http://alaye.biz/africa-destroyed-by-the-gods-introduction/

Africa: Destroyed by the gods is available for sale on Kindle books at this link: https://www.createspace.com/4811974

A FREE Chapter of 'Africa: Destroyed by the gods' could be downloaded here: http://alaye.biz/africa-destroyed-by-the-gods-free-chapter/

Read a review here
Femi maintains a blog @: www.alaye.biz/category/blog

Twitter: www.twitter.com/ekitiparapo
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