Sudan hidden war may erupt into 'direct conflict'

KHARTOUM (AFP) - A hidden war affecting hundreds of thousands of people as tensions mount between Sudan and the newly independent South Sudan threatens to erupt into direct conflict, analysts and diplomats say.

Fighting between ethnic Nuba rebels and government troops in oil-rich South Kordofan state began last June, one month before the South's formal independence.

The Nuba were allies of southern rebels during a 22-year civil war which ended in 2005 before an overwhelming southern vote in January 2011 for separation.

But Khartoum alleges that the new southern government continues to support rebels from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) in the Sudanese state of South Kordofan.

Khartoum threatened retaliation last Sunday after accusing the South of backing a rebel attack in the disputed border area of Jau.

"It is something serious because we fear the conflict by proxies, that today exists between the north and the south, becomes direct conflict," with the risk of destabilising the entire region, said a Western diplomat who asked for anonymity.

Khartoum said rebels accompanied by officers from South Sudan's army launched a "direct attack", but Juba denied supporting opposition groups in Sudan and said Jau is part of its territory.

In an escalation on Thursday, the South alleged Sudanese MiG warplanes bombed oil and water wells 74 kilometres (46 miles) inside its frontier while ground troops moved 17 kilometres into oil-rich Unity State.

Khartoum denied the claims, but the United States expressed alarm. It called such incidents "unacceptable" and said they threaten to raise tensions between the two states.

The earlier Jau attack could not have occurred in the absence of direct involvement by South Sudan's army, said Magdi El Gizouli, a fellow at the Rift Valley Institute.

"Without SPLA proper they can't do this," he said. "They can't just come from South Kordofan."

He sees the fighting as part of the "bargaining process" between two nations which are engaged in a major dispute over oil fees and other issues related to the South's separation.

When South Sudangained its independence it took about three-quarters of Sudanese oil production but it has no facilities of its own to export the crude. The two countries have been unable to agree on how much Juba should pay to use the northern pipeline and port.

If they can reach a deal, the insurgency will essentially die out, said Gizouli. The alternative is that it could flare into direct war.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Wednesday accused Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir of trying to undermine South Sudan.

The Western diplomat, however, told AFP that it is currently Juba "playing a dangerous game" by supporting rebel movements and seeking the fall of the Khartoum regime.

There is a feeling, he said, that "the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, or the government of Sudan, has not understood that it can no longer act like an armed movement, but that it has to act from now on as a government."

John Ashworth, an adviser to Sudanese churches for 29 years, says the South Kordofan rebel movement has its own reasons to fight and probably gets very little support from Juba.

It "will continue its struggle with or without external support, using captured weapons and ammunition," said Ashworth, currently in Juba.

"They (and their people) believe that the alternative (continued oppression by Khartoum) is worse than death, and they will fight to the death," he said in an emailed response to questions.

Ashworth said the war is destined to continue "a long time" with Khartoum opposed to meaningful negotiations and the rebels unable alone to overthrow the regime or enforce their own conditions for peace.

The government of Sudan has severely restricted access to the war zone for journalists, diplomats, and aid agencies, but the United Nations says more than 360,000 people have been internally displaced or severely affected by fighting in South Kordofan and nearby Blue Nile state.

International concern has risen over malnutrition and food shortages in the area.

Neither the UN nor the Red Cross can say how many non-combatants may have died since June in the war which has led to repeated allegations, denied by Khartoum, that civilians have been bombed from the air.

"This is probably, in civilian terms, a very costly war," said Gizouli. "There is no winning here."