Nigeria’s State of Emergency: The Road to Peace or More Violence?

Nigeria, Africa's most populous state is at the crossroads. At the center of this crossroads is Boko Haram, the growing Islamist militant group thought to be allied to al-Qaeda and also known as the Taliban of Africa. It will not be an exaggeration to say that Nigeria is dealing with the biggest crisis in her modern history since the 1967-1970 Nigerian Civil War, also called the Biafran War.

In what appears to be a decisive response to the Boko Haram threat, President Goodluck Jonathan has just declared a wide reaching State of Emergency. It appears to have one objective: to “crush” Boko Haram. The state of emergency declaration, invoked in line with section 305(1) of the Nigerian Constitution, has in place the following key measures:

- Institution of appropriate measures by the Chief of State and Inspector General of Police to protect lives and properties.

- The establishment of a Special Counter Terrorism Unit within the Armed Forces

- Closure of land borders in affected region to stop cross border terrorist activities.

While President Goodluck Jonathan's overall objective – to maintain peace and stability in affected areas- must be applauded, his overall execution strategy may not be sufficient to bring the much needed long lasting peace to Nigeria. Simply vowing to crush Boko Haram may prove to be as elusive as fighting the Taliban. This is an ultra-militant, Islamist and ideologically obsessed group bent on imposing Sharia Law in Nigeria. From its founding in 2002 by Ustaz Mohammed Yusuf , it is clear that the militant group has been progressively gaining in clout, sophistication and reach and is now believed to be capable of launching cross border attacks from deep inside neighboring Cameroon, Chad and Niger – countries with significant Muslim populations. We do generally know that Boko Haram may be affiliated to al-Qaeda. Who knows, probably there is much more about this group that we may simply not know. Who is funding this group? Who is training this group and providing it with intelligence and logistics? Is there a state actor providing the group with millions of dollars in funding? Is the entire intelligence apparatus of some state actor at the disposal of this militant group? Is the group being funded by a well-heeled non-state actor? Who are the state and non-state sympathizers of Boko Haram?

Since its founding in 2002, the group has staged numerous attacks and assassinations across Nigeria. The most notorious of such attacks were the August 26, 2011 suicide bombing of the UN office in Abuja in which at least 21 people reportedly died and more recently, the December 25 Christmas day church bombing which killed over 37 people. It is clear that with each attack, the group is becoming more sophisticated and deadly, especially with the use of suicide bombing. Even with the death of the group's founder in 2009 – the cutting of the snake's head, as they call it in intelligence circles – it became even more determined and deadly. With Boko Haram operating from Cameroon, Chad and Niger, the group has become more elusive than ever, with transnational operational strategies modeled along the lines of al-Qaeda and the Taliban. With this in mind, it is possible to conclude that even the CIA and the FBI of the United States may not have all the capabilities and resources to successfully crush Boko Haram, let along Nigeria.

What was clearly absent in president Jonathan's strategy was the waging of peace, as Jimmy Carter brilliantly put it. The employment of brute force in solving national problems belongs to the World War 2 era. The United States, the wealthiest nation on earth and with the most sophisticated intelligence and the biggest military Armada has not been able to totally defeat al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Not even Al-Shabab of Somalia. Today, the U.S is in prolonged peace negotiation with the Taliban. As part of the softening process, Taliban high value prisoners are being pulled from Guantanamo Bay and back to Afghanistan. There is even talk of the Taliban setting up a liaison office in Dubai. Both of these concessions to the Taliban are early signs of possible amnesty and power sharing for the Taliban, something which was unimaginable only a few years ago. As I said, using brute force in achieving peace is so passé. It belongs to the World War 2 era of conventional warfare and wars of attrition. The 21st century is a century of asymmetric warfare in which one may be fighting an enemy that's formless, stateless and invisible, yet with enormous resources and geographically omnipresent. Brute force alone hardly wins here.

President Jonathan must therefore design a multi-dimensional approach to solve the Boko Haram challenge. His Excellency must spend more time waging peace as he does waging war. The President must immediately launch peace negotiations with Boko Haram even if secretly. The point is, if you may negotiate ten years from today, why not negotiate now? Some form of limited autonomy may also be considered for some people in Nigeria. The granting of limited autonomy for some distinct groups is common in many parts of the world including China, Russia and the U.S. Again, some form of amnesty may be granted to the members of Boko Haram if they renounce violence. Former militants may then be trained for apprenticeship and integrated back into society. This proposed amnesty may help isolate the hardcore leaders and set them against its mass membership. Development and reconstruction may also be used as an instrument of peace, as has been successfully employed in Chechnya by Putin's Russia. Here, you inject lots of hard cash into the development and reconstruction of affected communities, rebuilding lives, raising hopes and bringing the people on the side of peace.

Nigeria is the most populous nation in Africa. It is a major oil producer for the United States and the world. There is even talk of Nigeria's economy growing bigger than that of South Africa in the years ahead. Fact is, Nigeria is a strategic country and the world cannot afford further degeneration of Nigeria into chaos. Already, high crime rate, fraud and power shortages are driving some multinationals to relocate to Ghana. If the Boko Haram violence escalates into a full scale crisis, Nigeria may be torn between a violence ridden state like Pakistan and a failed state like Afghanistan and Somalia. Tourists may stay away and Foreign Direct Investment inflows may dry up. In the end, Nigeria's credit rating may be downgraded and the result will be the deepening of a cycle of instability and poverty.

As U.S President Jimmy Carter brilliantly put it, the time to wage peace is now.

About AFRICAN LEADER,
AFRICAN LEADER is a New York City-based media company serving and reaching the over

$50 billion U.S African consumer market through direct subscription, email list, event sponsorships, networking, newsstand sales and online platforms. Analysts generally agree that there are between 3 to 5 million African immigrants, non-resident African immigrants and African-born U.S citizens currently living in the United States. The mission of AFRICAN LEADER is to become the most trusted and respected global media brand of choice for discerning consumers in growing markets, delivered through multiple interactive platforms. AFRICAN LEADER is published and delivered to its growing list of consumers from the heart of New York City, probably the most vibrant and cosmopolitan market in the world. As the trusted and reliable media brand for the U.S African market, AFRICAN LEADER is available in a newspaper format and also online at www.africanleader.net . You may contact AFRICAN LEADER at [email protected]

About Moses Asare
Moses Asare is a director and special writer for the AFRICAN LEADER, a New York City-based media company serving and reaching the over $50 billion U.S African consumer market through direct subscription, email list, event sponsorships, networking, newsstand sales and online platforms. As the trusted and reliable media brand for the U.S African market, AFRICAN LEADER is available in a newspaper format and also online at www.africanleader.net

Moses Asare is a respected expert on the U.S African Market, a booming niche market valued at over $50 billion. Analysts generally agree that there are between 3 to 5 million African immigrants, non-resident African immigrants and African-born U.S citizens currently living in the United States. In various key executive positions, Moses Asare has been actively involved in the U.S African market for about 10 years. Through his consulting work in Africa, Europe and the U.S and also as a strategic advisor to a New York-based communications firm providing marketing and advertising services to Fortune 500 clients, Moses Asare has provided strategic advisory services to leading multinational companies seeking to grow their brands and improve ROI in marketing to international, multicultural and niche consumers in the United States.

Moses Asare is also a director of Convergence International, a non-profit, New York City-based global think tank established to promote free enterprise, entrepreneurship, investments and opportunity particularly in emerging markets and disadvantaged communities in the United States. Moses Asare has written extensively on key global issues and current affairs. He is currently living in New York City with his wife and three lovely children. You may contact Moses Asare at [email protected].