DECISION: NDC CAPTURES PRESIDENCY. NPP RETAINS PARLIAMENT

This will be the likely outcome of the 2008 General Elections in GHANA if it is free and fair according to my research. While many dread such an outcome. I am all for it. Why? Because I think that will be the best thing ever happened to our democracy. It will strengthen Parliament to play its critical role in Nation building. The current Parliament is too weak to play any effective role in national development. It has abandoned its role as a check on Executive power. It is not performing its role of being the controller of the purse rather it exist to just rubber stamp Executive acts without any critical examination and debate. It fails to check abuses, it does not invite Ministers to Parliament for hearings, and has no power to act when people like Wereko Brobbey treat the house with contempt. A parliament controlled by the opposition is our surest bet in reducing governmental corruption.

My conviction of the outcome of the 2008 general elections is based on the fact that 52% to 48% advantage enjoyed by the NPP in the last presidential elections has been eroded by failure of government to honour its promises, rise in poverty, the energy crisis, armed robbers terrorising people, large army of unemployed youths which the NPP led government has failed to create jobs for etc, etc. In addition to the above, whereas between 2000 and 2004 NPP won all bye elections (whether the seat was originally NPP's or NDC's) , the results were different between 2004 and 2008. The NPP was able to retain its own seats and lost the NDC seats they contested. Interestingly, the NDC retained all its seats in a bye election with a wider margin of votes than in the 2004 elections (In Asawase and in Odododiodoo) whereas the NPP retained all its seats with a lesser margin than it did in 2004.

My conclusion is that, whereas these gain in votes for the opposition NDC is crucial it is not enough to wrestle Parliamentary seats from the ruling NPP come 2008. However, and this is the BIGGIE assuming all those who vote for a parliamentary candidate of a party also votes for its presidential candidate, these aggregate gains in votes in various constituencies across the country where NDC candidates lost to NPP will all add up to bolster the total votes cast in favour of the NDC presidential candidate given him an edge over the NPP's candidate and thus securing the presidency for the NDC in 2008. A first round win of 51% to about 47% is possible. The maths doesn't add up, right? The remaining 2% is for CPP and the other smaller parties.

Real Patriot has this to add :

The Real Debate is about Ghana:

It's not about theories and long discussions about what the NPP will do or the NDC will. It's about LIVING EVIDENCE regarding:

1. Where the P/NDC brought Ghana from;

AND

2. Where the NPP has taken it since January, 2001.

The relevant question, then is:

Did the P/NDC improve the lives of the average Ghanaian and at the same time made Ghana a more respectable country at the level it found it;

AND

Has the NPP improved further on the lives of the average Ghanaian and at the same time made Ghana a more respectable country at the level it found it?

Evidence One (living conditions of the average Ghanaian) is on the ground in Ghana.

Evidence Two (Ghana's image abroad) is interpreted by the respect, or lack of, she enjoys in the rest of the world.

Fortunately, both the NDC and NPP have these records we can fall on.

Also, the presidential candidate for each party has a record of his own with which to assess his ability.


Ben Ofosu-Appiah,
Tokyo, Japan.

The author is a public policy expert, a senior social and political analyst based in Tokyo, Japan. He welcomes your comments.